PRIMAVERA · Project

High-Resolution Climate Predictions to Help Businesses Manage Weather and Climate Risk Through 2050

environmentTestedTRL 4Thin data (2/5)

primavera-h2020.eu

Imagine weather forecasts, but zoomed in much closer and stretched decades into the future. Right now, most global climate models see the world in blurry, chunky blocks — like watching a movie in low resolution. PRIMAVERA brought together 7 climate modeling teams across Europe to build models with roughly 25km detail, sharp enough to capture storms, ocean currents, and regional weather patterns that matter for real decisions. The result is climate projections out to 2050 that businesses and policymakers can actually use to plan ahead.

By the numbers

~25km

Climate model mesh resolution (vs typical 100km+)

Independent climate modeling groups coordinated under single protocol

2050

Projection timeline for regional climate predictions

Consortium partners across Europe

Countries represented in the consortium

Total project deliverables produced

The business problem

What needed solving

Businesses making long-term investments — in energy infrastructure, real estate, agriculture, or insurance portfolios — are flying blind on climate risk. Traditional climate models are too coarse to capture the regional weather extremes that actually cause damage. Without reliable, high-resolution projections, companies either over-invest in protection they don't need or get blindsided by events their models said were unlikely.

The solution

What was built

High-resolution global climate models (~25km) from 7 European groups, validated against real-world observations under the CMIP6 protocol. An energy sector visual prototype delivered online. A total of 53 deliverables including model outputs, assessment tools, and sector-specific climate information products.

Audience

Who needs this

Reinsurance companies repricing European climate risk portfoliosPower grid operators stress-testing infrastructure against future extremesRenewable energy developers selecting sites for 20-30 year asset lifetimesAgricultural cooperatives planning crop strategies under shifting climateCity planners and infrastructure engineers designing for 2050 conditions

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Insurance & Reinsurance

enterprise

Target: Property and casualty insurers, reinsurance firms

If you are an insurer struggling to price climate-related risk for European assets — this project developed high-resolution climate models at ~25km detail that simulate extreme weather events with much greater accuracy than traditional models. Instead of relying on historical loss data that no longer reflects reality, you could use these projections out to 2050 to recalibrate your risk portfolios region by region. The consortium of 20 partners across 9 countries validated these models against real observations.

Energy & Utilities

enterprise

Target: Power grid operators, renewable energy developers

If you are an energy company planning infrastructure investments that must withstand decades of changing climate — this project built an energy sector visual prototype specifically designed to answer end-user needs. The models resolve weather features at ~25km resolution, capturing wind patterns and temperature extremes critical for energy planning through 2050. With 53 deliverables including sector-specific tools, this gives grid operators data to stress-test their networks against realistic future climate scenarios.

Agriculture & Food Supply

any

Target: Large-scale farming operations, agricultural cooperatives, crop insurers

If you are managing agricultural operations vulnerable to drought, flooding, or shifting growing seasons — this project produced regional climate projections at ~25km resolution that capture the local weather patterns traditional models miss. These projections extend to 2050, giving agribusinesses a concrete planning horizon for crop selection, irrigation investment, and supply chain resilience. The models were developed by 7 independent groups under a single protocol, making the results more robust than any single forecast.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access these climate projections?

Based on available project data, PRIMAVERA was a publicly funded Research and Innovation Action. The model outputs were contributed to the CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, which typically makes data publicly available through climate data portals. Costs would likely relate to data processing and integration into your systems, not the raw data itself.

Can these models work at the scale my business needs?

The models operate at approximately 25km mesh resolution globally, which is a major step up from typical 100km+ climate models. For regional European risk assessment this is highly actionable. However, for site-level decisions (e.g., a single building or farm), you would need additional downscaling, which is a standard industry practice.

Who owns the intellectual property and can I license these models?

The project was coordinated by the UK Met Office, a public institution, with 20 partners across 9 countries. As a publicly funded EU project (RIA), the IP is typically retained by the consortium partners. Commercial licensing would need to be negotiated with the Met Office or relevant partner institutions directly.

How does this compare to climate data I can already buy?

PRIMAVERA is the first project to run 7 different high-resolution coupled global climate models under a single experimental protocol. This multi-model approach reduces the uncertainty that plagues single-model forecasts. The ~25km resolution captures weather features like storms and ocean eddies that coarser commercial products simply cannot reproduce.

What is the timeline for getting usable results from this?

The project ran from 2015 to 2020 and produced 53 deliverables, including a visual prototype for the energy sector delivered through an online user interface. The climate data and tools are already complete. Integration into your decision-making systems would be the remaining step.

Is this validated or still experimental?

The models were validated using process-based metrics against the latest observational and reanalysis datasets. The coordinated multi-model approach across 7 groups specifically aimed to reduce inter-model spread and produce robust projections. This is peer-reviewed climate science contributed to the international CMIP6 benchmark.

Consortium

Who built it

The PRIMAVERA consortium is heavily research-oriented: 10 research organizations and 5 universities form the backbone, with only 2 industry partners and 1 SME (10% industry ratio). Coordinated by the UK Met Office — one of the world's most respected meteorological institutions — the 20-partner team spans 9 countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Sweden, UK), giving strong pan-European coverage. For a business looking to use these results, the low industry ratio means you would likely need a systems integrator or consultancy to translate the raw climate science into business-ready tools. The upside is that the science is world-class and peer-reviewed, backed by institutions with decades of climate modeling credibility.

MET OFFICECoordinator · UK
THE UNIVERSITY OF READINGparticipant · UK
ADMINISTRATIA NATIONALA DE METEOROLOGIE R.A.participant · RO
UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAINparticipant · BE
DEUTSCHES KLIMARECHENZENTRUM GMBHparticipant · DE
UNIVERSITY OF LEEDSparticipant · UK
SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUTparticipant · SE
ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNGparticipant · DE
CENTRE EUROPEEN DE RECHERCHE ET DEFORMATION AVANCEE EN CALCUL SCIENTIFIQUEparticipant · FR
UNITED KINGDOM RESEARCH AND INNOVATIONparticipant · UK
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHEparticipant · IT
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMIparticipant · NL
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTSparticipant · UK
THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORDparticipant · UK
NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTREparticipant · UK
MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EVparticipant · DE
FONDAZIONE CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEOSUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIparticipant · IT
BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACIONparticipant · ES
STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITETparticipant · SE

How to reach the team

Met Office (UK) — the UK's national weather service. Contact their climate services or commercial partnerships team.

Order a report on this consortium See MET OFFICE profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how PRIMAVERA's high-resolution climate data could inform your risk management? SciTransfer can connect you with the right consortium partner for your sector.

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