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APPLICATE · Project

Better Arctic Weather Forecasts That Protect Shipping, Energy, and Insurance Operations

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applicate-h2020.eu

Imagine trying to plan a shipping route through the Arctic but having no reliable weather forecast — that's essentially what companies face today. APPLICATE brought together 17 research groups across 9 countries to dramatically improve how we predict weather and sea ice conditions in polar regions. They built better computer models that connect what happens in the ocean, ice, and atmosphere, so forecasts are more accurate from days to seasons ahead. The results feed directly into the operational weather centres that companies already rely on.

By the numbers
17
consortium partners
9
countries represented
59
total project deliverables
9
research institutions in consortium
5
universities in consortium
2
industry partners
The business problem

What needed solving

Companies operating in or affected by Arctic conditions — shipping lines, offshore energy, insurers — make million-euro decisions based on weather and ice forecasts that are significantly less accurate in polar regions than elsewhere. Poor Arctic predictions lead to costly route diversions, delayed offshore operations, and mispriced climate risk exposure across the entire Northern Hemisphere.

The solution

What was built

The project delivered improved sea ice prediction systems contributed to the SIPN network, a fully coupled Single Column Model spanning deep ocean through atmosphere, and multi-model simulation experiments quantifying Arctic-to-midlatitude weather linkages. In total, 59 deliverables were produced covering model improvements, observing system design, and forecast validation.

Audience

Who needs this

Arctic shipping companies planning Northern Sea Route transitsOffshore energy operators in sub-Arctic watersReinsurance companies pricing Northern Hemisphere climate riskNational weather services upgrading polar prediction capabilitiesClimate risk consultancies advising on Arctic exposure
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Maritime & Arctic Shipping
enterprise
Target: Shipping companies operating Northern Sea Route or Arctic transit corridors

If you are a shipping company planning Arctic transits and dealing with unreliable sea ice forecasts — this project developed improved sea ice prediction systems tested through the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). These models improve forecast accuracy for ice extent and thickness, letting you plan safer routes and reduce costly diversions. The consortium included 17 partners from 9 countries with direct links to operational prediction centres.

Offshore Energy
enterprise
Target: Oil, gas, and offshore wind operators in sub-Arctic and northern waters

If you are an offshore energy operator dealing with unpredictable Arctic weather disrupting your drilling or installation schedules — this project improved atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling in prediction models. Better boundary layer and cloud forecasting means more accurate 1-14 day operational weather windows. The project delivered 59 technical outputs including fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice simulations.

Climate Risk & Insurance
enterprise
Target: Reinsurance companies and climate risk consultancies

If you are an insurer struggling to price Arctic and Northern Hemisphere climate risk — this project produced multi-model experiments quantifying how Arctic change affects weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere. The consortium of 9 research institutions and 5 universities generated validated datasets you can use to improve catastrophe models and exposure assessments.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access these improved prediction models?

APPLICATE was a publicly funded Research and Innovation Action, so core model improvements are integrated into open research infrastructure. Licensing costs would depend on which operational prediction centre (e.g., ECMWF, Met Norway) has adopted the improvements. Contact the coordinator for specific data access terms.

Can these models work at industrial scale for daily operations?

The project delivered simulation systems and contributed sea ice predictions through the SIPN network, indicating operational-scale capability. However, these are research-grade models designed for integration into existing national weather services rather than standalone commercial products. Operational prediction centres were directly involved in the consortium.

What about intellectual property and licensing?

As a publicly funded RIA project, results are generally subject to open access principles. The 59 deliverables include models and datasets that may have specific access conditions. The coordinator Alfred Wegener Institute would handle IP discussions for any commercial applications.

How accurate are these Arctic forecasts compared to what existed before?

The project developed advanced metrics and diagnostics to measure model performance and established baselines for existing models. Specific accuracy improvements are documented across the 59 deliverables, including sea ice predictions validated through the SIPN activities. Based on available project data, exact percentage improvements would require reviewing the final technical reports.

Which weather services already use these improvements?

The consortium included operational prediction centres as direct partners, ensuring knowledge transfer. The 17-partner consortium spanned 9 countries including major Arctic nations (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Germany, France, UK). Based on available project data, specific adoption details would be available from the project website.

How far ahead can these models predict Arctic conditions?

The project addressed prediction from weather timescales (days) through to climate timescales (seasons and beyond). Sea ice predictions and atmosphere-ocean coupling improvements target the sub-seasonal to seasonal range most valuable for operational planning. The fully coupled Single Column Model extends from deep ocean through sea ice and atmosphere.

Consortium

Who built it

The 17-partner consortium across 9 countries is heavily research-oriented: 9 research institutions and 5 universities make up the bulk, with only 2 industry partners and 1 SME (12% industry ratio). This signals strong scientific credibility — the coordinator Alfred Wegener Institute is one of Europe's top polar research centres — but limited commercial translation so far. For a business looking to use these results, the key access point would be through the operational prediction centres that participated directly in the project, as they bridge the gap between research outputs and real-world forecasting services. The geographic spread across major Arctic nations (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Germany, France, UK, plus Belgium, Spain, Russia) ensures the models cover the full range of Arctic conditions relevant to Northern Hemisphere operations.

How to reach the team

Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany — reach out through their research coordination office

Order a report on this consortiumSee ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNG profile →
Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to know how improved Arctic prediction models could reduce your operational risk? SciTransfer can connect you with the right researchers from this 17-partner consortium.

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