Imagine the Earth has several 'tripwires' that, if crossed, cause a sudden and irreversible collapse, like a giant ice sheet melting all at once. This work builds a high-tech digital map to predict where these tripwires are and how they trigger each other. It helps us spot the warning signs before we hit the point of no return.
Businesses face 'blind spots' in long-term planning because standard climate models often miss sudden, irreversible tipping points. This leads to underestimated risks for infrastructure, supply chains, and insurance portfolios.
A set of Earth System Model (ESM) experiment protocols and a tipping point risk register containing early warning indicators.
If you are a reinsurance firm dealing with unpredictable catastrophic loss models — this project developed a tipping point risk register that identifies high-risk climate triggers. This allows for more accurate pricing of long-term environmental risks.
If you are a global agribusiness dealing with sudden ecosystem collapses — this project developed early warning indicators for vegetation and land use. This helps in shifting crop investments before a local environment becomes non-viable.
If you are a consultancy dealing with sea-level rise uncertainty — this project developed improved ice sheet and marine biogeochemistry models. This provides a clearer timeline for when coastal assets may become permanently submerged.
Based on available project data, no pricing or cost structure is mentioned as the project is funded by a HORIZON-RIA grant.
The project focuses on developing Earth System Models and a risk register for research and policy use; it is not currently presented as a commercial industrial-scale product.
Based on available project data, specific licensing terms are not provided, though results are intended to be shared with research communities and policymakers.
The project period runs from 2024-01-01 to 2027-12-31, suggesting the final synthesis of the risk register will occur toward the end of this window.
Companies can use the early warning indicators and risk register data to quantify climate-related physical risks in their sustainability disclosures.
The consortium is heavily weighted toward research and academia, consisting of 15 partners from 9 countries. With 8 research organizations and 5 universities, and 0% industry participation, the project is driven by scientific discovery rather than immediate commercial application. The leadership by the Danish Meteorological Institute ensures a strong focus on meteorological accuracy.
Contact the Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut regarding the Tipping Point Risk Register.
Contact us to track the release of the TipESM risk register for your strategic planning.
