SWAMI · Project

Better Space Weather Forecasting to Protect Satellite Operations Worth Hundreds of Millions

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swami-h2020.eu

Imagine you're flying a drone, but the air keeps changing thickness without warning — sometimes it drags your drone down, sometimes it lets it cruise. That's basically what happens to satellites in low Earth orbit when space weather hits. Solar storms and geomagnetic activity change the upper atmosphere's density, messing with satellite orbits and making it hard to predict where space debris is headed. SWAMI built better weather models for space — combining physics-based and data-driven approaches — so satellite operators can keep their assets safe and plan launches more reliably.

By the numbers

several hundred million EUR/year

LEO satellite business market size

consortium partners across 4 countries

total project deliverables

prototype operational service component delivered

The business problem

What needed solving

Satellites in low Earth orbit — representing a several hundred million EUR per year industry — are constantly affected by space weather that changes atmospheric density in unpredictable ways. This causes unexpected orbital drag, forcing costly fuel burns for orbit corrections, complicating re-entry calculations, and making space debris tracking unreliable. Without accurate space weather forecasts and atmosphere models, operators are flying partially blind.

The solution

What was built

The project built a unique whole-atmosphere model by combining the Unified Model (UM) and Drag Temperature Model (DTM), improved geomagnetic and solar activity index forecasting, and delivered prototype operational service components with documentation — all designed for direct use in satellite orbit maintenance, re-entry estimation, and launch operations.

Audience

Who needs this

LEO satellite fleet operators (e.g., Planet Labs, OneWeb, Eutelsat)Space launch and re-entry service providersSpace debris tracking and space situational awareness companiesNational space agencies operating LEO missionsInsurance companies underwriting satellite assets

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Satellite Operations

enterprise

Target: LEO satellite fleet operators

If you are a satellite operator managing a fleet in low Earth orbit and dealing with unexpected orbit decay during geomagnetic storms — this project developed an integrated whole-atmosphere model and prototype operational service that improves drag predictions, helping you reduce fuel spent on orbit corrections and avoid collision risks. LEO satellites represent a several hundred million EUR per year business that depends on this.

Space Launch Services

enterprise

Target: Rocket launch and re-entry service providers

If you are a launch provider dealing with uncertainty in atmospheric conditions during launch windows and re-entry calculations — this project built improved atmosphere density models and solar activity forecasts that let you better predict drag forces, tighten re-entry footprint estimates, and reduce costly launch delays or trajectory miscalculations.

Space Debris Tracking

mid-size

Target: Space situational awareness and debris monitoring companies

If you are a space surveillance company struggling with inaccurate orbit predictions for tracked objects during solar storms — this project delivered improved geomagnetic and solar activity indices along with a blended atmosphere model that makes debris trajectory forecasts more reliable, directly reducing false collision alerts and missed conjunction events.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would this cost to adopt or license?

Based on available project data, pricing details are not disclosed. The project was coordinated by DEIMOS SPACE, an established space industry company. Licensing or service access terms would need to be negotiated directly with them or through ESA's operational service channels.

Can this work at industrial scale for real satellite operations?

The project explicitly aimed for transition from research into operational services and delivered prototype operational service components with documentation. The whole-atmosphere model was designed to serve real LEO satellite operators for orbit maintenance, re-entry estimation, and launch operations.

What is the IP situation — can I license this technology?

The project was funded as a Research and Innovation Action (RIA) under Horizon 2020. IP is typically held by the consortium partners. DEIMOS SPACE as coordinator and the 3 other partners across 4 countries would be the primary contacts for licensing discussions.

How does this improve on what we already use for orbit prediction?

SWAMI combined two leading models — the Unified Model (UM) and the Drag Temperature Model (DTM) — into a unique blended whole-atmosphere model. It also improved the forecast of geomagnetic and solar activity indices that feed into these models, addressing multiple space weather drivers together rather than in isolation.

Is this ready to plug into our satellite operations center today?

The project delivered prototype operational service components and documentation, indicating the technology is past pure research but not yet a turnkey commercial product. The consortium explicitly designed the outputs to provide a pathway to improved operational space weather services.

Which space agencies or operators have validated this?

Based on available project data, specific validation partners beyond the 4-member consortium are not listed. The consortium included 1 industry partner and 2 research organizations across Germany, Spain, France, and the UK — all key European space nations.

Consortium

Who built it

The SWAMI consortium is compact but strategically assembled: 4 partners from 4 major European space nations (Germany, Spain, France, UK). Led by DEIMOS SPACE, an established Spanish space industry company, the team includes 2 research organizations and 1 other partner. The 25% industry ratio is typical for a research-to-operations project. The absence of SMEs and universities suggests this was driven by experienced space sector players focused on operational outcomes rather than academic exploration. For a business buyer, the fact that an industry player led the project — not a university — signals practical intent.

DEIMOS SPACE SOCIEDAD LIMITADA UNIPERSONALCoordinator · ES
MET OFFICEparticipant · UK
GFZ HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR GEOFORSCHUNGparticipant · DE
CENTRE NATIONAL D'ETUDES SPATIALES - CNESparticipant · FR

How to reach the team

DEIMOS SPACE S.L.U. based in Spain — contact through their corporate website or via SciTransfer for a facilitated introduction.

Order a report on this consortium See DEIMOS SPACE SOCIEDAD LIMITADA UNIPERSONAL profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how SWAMI's atmosphere models could improve your satellite operations or space weather services? SciTransfer can arrange a direct introduction to the project team and prepare a tailored briefing for your use case.

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