If you are a pension provider dealing with unpredictable long-term payout risks — this project developed a dynamic microsimulation model that predicts how ageing and savings behavior change over a lifecycle. This allows for more accurate risk assessment of intergenerational transfers.
Predictive Modeling for Ageing Populations and Labor Market Sustainability
Imagine trying to plan a family budget when you don't know how long everyone will live or how much they'll earn. This work builds a sophisticated simulator to predict how an older population affects jobs, savings, and government spending. It uses brain science and economics to understand why people make certain life choices, helping society prepare for a future with more retirees.
What needed solving
Companies and governments struggle to predict how an ageing population will impact labor availability, pension sustainability, and the demand for care services.
What was built
A dynamic microsimulation model and a data explorer for age profiles and interactive results.
Who needs this
Who can put this to work
If you are a recruitment firm dealing with a shrinking young workforce — this project developed insights into job design to foster intergenerational complementarities. This helps companies keep older workers productive while integrating new talent.
If you are a care provider dealing with the rising demand of the silver economy — this project developed evidence on the interaction between market and family care provision. This helps in forecasting demand for private care services as public welfare capacity limits.
Quick answers
What is the cost or price for using these models?
Based on available project data, no pricing or cost structures for the models have been disclosed.
Is this ready for industrial scale deployment?
The project is currently in the development phase, having extended its comparative model to 8 countries, but it is not yet a commercial product.
What are the IP and licensing terms for the microsimulation tool?
Based on available project data, specific IP or licensing agreements are not mentioned.
How does this integrate with existing demographic data?
It integrates National Transfer Accounts (NTA) and EUROMOD to create a dynamic microsimulation model for comparative projections.
What is the timeline for the final results?
The project period runs from 2023-02-01 to 2027-01-31, with final results not yet applicable.
Who built it
The consortium is heavily academic, consisting of 9 universities and 4 research centers across 7 countries. With 0 industrial partners and only 1 SME, the project is driven by scientific discovery rather than immediate commercial application, focusing on multidisciplinary research combining neuroscience and economics.
Contact Universitat de Barcelona for details on the microsimulation model
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Contact us to bridge the gap between these demographic models and your corporate strategy.