Imagine you run a wind farm or hydropower plant, and every season you're basically guessing what the weather will do over the next few months. Right now, most energy companies just look at historical averages — essentially using yesterday's weather to plan tomorrow's business. SECLI-FIRM built tailored seasonal forecasts (months ahead, not days) and tested them against real extreme-weather events across Europe and South America, showing that better forecasts lead to smarter energy trading, hedging, and water management decisions. Think of it as upgrading from a paper map to GPS for your energy portfolio planning.
Energy companies and water utilities lose money every year because they plan operations and manage risk using historical weather averages that fail during extreme seasons. When an unexpected drought hits hydropower or a mild winter slashes heating demand, the financial impact is immediate and often severe. There is no widely adopted way to use seasonal forecasts — months ahead — to systematically improve energy trading, hedging, and resource planning decisions.
The project built tailored, probabilistic seasonal climate forecast services for energy and water applications, tested through 9 real-world case studies of extreme weather across Europe and South America. It produced 22 deliverables including pilot applications delivering near real-time forecast products co-designed with industry partners, plus a methodology to quantify the economic value of better forecasts versus standard historical-average approaches.
If you are a renewable energy operator dealing with unpredictable seasonal generation swings — this project developed calibrated seasonal forecasts tailored for energy applications, tested across 9 real case studies involving extreme weather. The pilot services help optimize asset management and hedging by replacing outdated historical-average assumptions with probabilistic forecasts months ahead.
If you are a hydropower company or water utility struggling with seasonal water availability — this project co-designed pilot climate services with industry partners that improve supply-demand balance planning. Tested on 9 case studies covering anomalous climate conditions, the tools help you quantify risk and adjust operations before droughts or floods hit.
If you are an energy trader relying on historical averages to hedge seasonal positions — this project demonstrated measurable value-add from tailored probabilistic seasonal forecasts for portfolio management. With 3 industry partners co-designing the case studies, the results show how better forecasts translate directly into improved hedging and asset optimization decisions.
The project itself was funded at EUR 4,638,500 across 10 partners. Pricing for the resulting climate services is not specified in the project data. You would likely need to negotiate licensing or service agreements with the consortium partners who developed the pilot applications.
The project tested its forecasts across 9 case studies covering Europe and South America, designed specifically for operational planning and portfolio management scenarios. The pilot applications were co-designed with 3 industry partners to ensure relevance to real business decisions, though the deliverables describe the services as non-operational at project end.
As an EU-funded Research and Innovation Action (RIA), the intellectual property typically remains with the consortium partners who developed it. With 10 partners across 5 countries, licensing arrangements would need to be discussed with the relevant partners. Contact the coordinator at University of East Anglia for specifics.
Most energy companies currently use climatological conditions based on historical averages — this was the explicit baseline the project tested against. SECLI-FIRM produced individually optimized, probabilistic seasonal forecasts tailored for specific energy and water applications, going months ahead rather than days.
The project used a rigorous methodology comparing a control case (historical averages) against a test case (tailored seasonal forecasts) across 9 case studies of extreme weather events. These case studies were specifically chosen for having quantifiable impacts on the energy and water industry. Based on available project data, exact financial improvement figures are not published in the objective.
The project ran from 2018 to 2021 and produced 22 deliverables including pilot applications with near real-time products. Integration timelines would depend on your existing infrastructure, but the pilot services were designed to feed into operational planning and portfolio management workflows already used by energy companies.
The project explicitly addresses climate change mitigation through improved supply-demand balance and more efficient energy systems, particularly for renewables. It was funded under the Horizon 2020 climate services topic (SC5-01-2016-2017), aligning with EU climate policy objectives.
The SECLI-FIRM consortium brings together 10 partners from 5 countries (ES, FR, IT, NL, UK), with a 30% industry ratio — 3 industry partners including 2 SMEs, alongside 1 university, 4 research organizations, and 2 other entities. The University of East Anglia leads the project. For a business considering adoption, the involvement of 3 industry partners who co-designed the 9 case studies signals that the tools were built with real operational needs in mind, not just academic curiosity. The mix of climate research expertise and energy sector experience across Western Europe gives the consortium credibility in both the science and the market it serves.
University of East Anglia (UK) — search for the SECLI-FIRM project lead in their School of Environmental Sciences
Want to explore how seasonal climate forecasts could reduce risk in your energy portfolio? SciTransfer can connect you with the SECLI-FIRM research team and help assess fit for your operations.
