SafeSpace · Project

Early Warning System Predicts Space Radiation Threats to Protect Satellites Days in Advance

otherPrototypeTRL 5

safespace-h2020.eu

Imagine you have expensive equipment orbiting Earth — satellites worth hundreds of millions — and the Sun can fry their electronics with a sudden burst of radiation. Right now, you only get a few hours' warning before that happens. SafeSpace connected five existing weather-in-space models into one chain, from the Sun all the way to Earth's radiation belts, to push that warning window out to 2 to 4 days. Think of it like upgrading from a same-day storm alert to a reliable four-day forecast for space.

By the numbers

2-4 days

Forecast lead time for radiation belt events (up from current few hours)

Established space weather models integrated into one chain

EUR 2,999,665

EU contribution invested in development

Partners in the consortium across 5 countries

Total project deliverables produced

The business problem

What needed solving

Satellites in Earth's radiation belts face sudden, damaging radiation storms from the Sun, and operators currently get only a few hours of warning — barely enough to react, let alone plan. This means expensive electronics get fried, spacecraft enter unplanned safe modes, services go offline, and satellite lifetimes shrink. The space industry needs longer forecast windows to protect assets worth hundreds of millions of euros per mission.

The solution

What was built

SafeSpace built a prototype early warning system that chains 5 space weather models — covering solar disturbance propagation, CME evolution, neural network predictions, plasmasphere modelling, and radiation belt simulation — to forecast dangerous radiation conditions 2 to 4 days ahead. It also produced a prototype model of diffusion coefficients driven by solar and interplanetary conditions, plus tailored particle radiation indicators designed with Thales Alenia Space for operational use.

Audience

Who needs this

Satellite fleet operators (GEO and MEO orbit constellations)Satellite manufacturers designing radiation-hardened spacecraftSpace insurance underwriters pricing radiation-related riskGround segment and mission control service providersSpace agencies and defence organizations managing critical orbital assets

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Satellite manufacturing and operations

enterprise

Target: Satellite operators and manufacturers managing spacecraft fleets in medium and geostationary orbits

If you are a satellite operator dealing with unexpected radiation events that damage onboard electronics and shorten spacecraft lifetimes — this project developed a prototype early warning system that combines 5 space weather models to forecast dangerous radiation belt conditions 2 to 4 days ahead, compared to the current few hours. Thales Alenia Space helped define the radiation indicators most useful for operational decisions.

Space insurance and risk assessment

enterprise

Target: Underwriters and actuaries specializing in space asset insurance policies

If you are a space insurer struggling to price risk for satellites exposed to unpredictable radiation storms — this project built a prototype service delivering tailored particle radiation indicators that quantify exposure levels days in advance. With 9 partners across 5 countries validating the models, you could integrate these forecasts into more accurate risk pricing and loss-prevention protocols.

Satellite ground segment and mission control services

mid-size

Target: Companies providing ground-based mission control, telemetry, and satellite health monitoring

If you are a ground segment provider whose clients lose revenue every time a satellite must enter safe mode due to a radiation event — this project created a forecasting chain covering the full Sun-to-magnetosphere path, delivering actionable warnings with a 2 to 4 day lead time. That window lets your operations team plan manoeuvres or reconfigure payloads before the storm hits rather than reacting after damage occurs.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access this space weather forecasting service?

The project produced a prototype service, not a commercial product yet. Pricing would depend on future commercialization by the consortium partners. With EUR 2,999,665 in EU funding invested across 9 partners, licensing or service-fee arrangements would need to be negotiated directly with the consortium.

Can this scale to cover entire satellite constellations, not just single spacecraft?

The system models the full Van Allen electron belt environment, not individual satellites, so the radiation indicators apply to any asset in that region. This means constellation operators could use the same forecast output for hundreds of spacecraft simultaneously without additional per-satellite computation.

Who owns the intellectual property, and how could my company license it?

IP is distributed among the 9 consortium partners across 5 countries, including CNRS, KU Leuven, ONERA, IASB, and Thales Alenia Space. Licensing terms would need to be discussed with the coordinator at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens or with the partner that developed the specific model component you need.

How much better is this than what we can get today?

Current operational radiation belt forecasts are limited to lead times of a few hours. SafeSpace targeted 2 to 4 days of advance warning — a significant improvement for mission planning and protective action. The system chains 5 validated models covering solar disturbances through interplanetary space to Earth's magnetosphere.

How difficult is it to integrate this into our existing mission control systems?

The project designed tailored particle radiation indicators specifically for space industry use, defined in collaboration with Thales Alenia Space. Based on available project data, the output is indicator-based, which means it could feed into existing anomaly management workflows. However, as a prototype, integration engineering would still be required.

Has this been validated by actual industry users?

Yes. Thales Alenia Space, a major European space company, was a project partner and evaluated the prototype service performance. Additional evaluation was planned with external advisors selected through the project's External Advisory Panel.

Consortium

Who built it

The SafeSpace consortium of 9 partners across 5 countries (Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece, Spain, France) is research-heavy, with 4 research organizations and 3 universities making up 78% of the team. The 22% industry share comes from 2 industrial partners, critically including Thales Alenia Space — one of Europe's largest satellite manufacturers — which validates real market pull. Only 1 SME is involved. For a business considering this technology, the strong research base means deep scientific credibility, while Thales Alenia Space's involvement signals that the outputs were shaped by actual operational needs rather than purely academic interests. The coordinator is the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in Greece.

ETHNIKO KAI KAPODISTRIAKO PANEPISTIMIO ATHINONCoordinator · EL
USTAV FYZIKY ATMOSFERY AV CR, v.v.i.participant · CZ
OFFICE NATIONAL D'ETUDES ET DE RECHERCHES AEROSPATIALESparticipant · FR
THALES ALENIA SPACE ESPANA SAparticipant · ES
INSTITUT ROYAL D'AERONOMIE SPATIALE DE BELGIQUEparticipant · BE
UNIVERSITE PAUL SABATIER TOULOUSE IIIthirdparty · FR
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRSparticipant · FR
KATHOLIEKE UNIVERSITEIT LEUVENparticipant · BE

How to reach the team

Coordinator is the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (Greece). SciTransfer can facilitate an introduction to the research team.

Order a report on this consortium See ETHNIKO KAI KAPODISTRIAKO PANEPISTIMIO ATHINON profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how SafeSpace forecasting could protect your satellite fleet or improve your risk models? SciTransfer can connect you directly with the research team and help evaluate fit for your operations.

Order a report on this topic More in other