RISE · Project

Real-Time Earthquake Forecasting and Instant Damage Estimates for Europe

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Earthquakes don't come with advance warning — or at least they didn't. This project built a system that treats earthquake risk like weather: something you can forecast, track in real time, and respond to within seconds. It combines seismic monitoring across Europe, early warning alerts pushed to citizens and responders, and instant damage cost estimates delivered within minutes of shaking. Think of it as a "weather forecast for earthquakes" — not predicting exact events, but flagging when and where risk is elevated and what it will cost when something hits.

By the numbers

EUR 8,000,000

EU funding for earthquake risk reduction research

partner institutions in the consortium

countries represented in the project

total project deliverables produced

demonstrated operational services

principal investigators involved

countries with field-tested risk communication (Italy, Switzerland, France)

The business problem

What needed solving

Companies and agencies operating in earthquake-prone regions across Europe face massive losses from seismic events, yet most rely on static risk maps that never change. There is no widely available commercial system to forecast periods of increased seismic activity, warn of incoming shaking in real time, or rapidly estimate financial losses within minutes of an earthquake. This gap means slower emergency response, blind insurance exposure, and infrastructure operators caught off guard.

The solution

What was built

The project delivered operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) services for Italy, Switzerland, and Europe-wide as web services; a European Rapid Loss Assessment (RLA) service that estimates damage and distributes alerts to subscribers within minutes; a European forecast testing centre at GFZ; crowdsourced early warning apps (LastQuake, EarthQuakeNetwork); pan-European building exposure and vulnerability models; and a field-tested risk communication strategy for Italy, Switzerland, and France. In total, 77 deliverables were produced including 7 demonstrated services.

Audience

Who needs this

Reinsurance and catastrophe insurance companies needing real-time seismic loss estimatesCritical infrastructure operators (power plants, pipelines, data centers) in seismic zonesNational civil protection agencies modernizing earthquake response systemsConstruction and engineering firms designing buildings in earthquake-prone areasReal estate portfolio managers assessing seismic exposure across European properties

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Insurance and Reinsurance

enterprise

Target: Catastrophe modelling or reinsurance company

If you are a reinsurance company that needs hours or days to estimate earthquake losses after a major event — this project built a European Rapid Loss Assessment service that delivers damage estimates to subscribers within minutes of shaking. It uses pan-European exposure and vulnerability models covering building types across the continent. With 28 partner institutions feeding data from 13 countries, the underlying models have been validated against real seismic conditions across Europe's most active zones.

Critical Infrastructure

enterprise

Target: Utility company or data center operator in a seismic zone

If you operate power plants, pipelines, or data centers in earthquake-prone parts of Europe and need seconds of advance warning to trigger emergency shutdowns — this project developed and updated crowdsourced earthquake early warning services and operational forecasting that flags periods of elevated seismic risk. The system was tested across seismically active countries including Italy, Turkey, and Iceland. Even a few seconds of warning before shaking arrives can be enough to safely shut down sensitive equipment.

Civil Protection Technology

any

Target: Emergency management technology provider or civil protection agency

If you supply earthquake response systems to governments and need validated forecasting and rapid assessment tools — this project delivered operational earthquake forecasting services for Italy, Switzerland, and Europe-wide, connected to the EPOS infrastructure. The field-tested risk communication strategy developed for Italy, Switzerland, and France provides a ready-made blueprint for deploying public-facing alerts. With 77 deliverables and 7 demonstrated services, the technology stack is integration-ready.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access these earthquake forecasting and loss assessment services?

Based on available project data, the services were developed as research outputs with EUR 8,000,000 in EU funding and are currently distributed to 'selected and approved subscribers.' Pricing for commercial access is not specified. Interested companies should contact the consortium to discuss licensing or service access terms.

Can these services scale to cover my operations across multiple European countries?

Yes. The operational earthquake forecasting service already covers Italy, Switzerland, and Europe-wide. The Rapid Loss Assessment service uses pan-European exposure and vulnerability models. The European forecast testing centre at GFZ processes forecasts for at least three testing regions and is designed as an EPOS service with continent-wide reach.

Who owns the intellectual property, and can I license these tools?

The project was coordinated by ETH Zurich under a Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action with 28 partners. IP ownership typically follows EU grant rules where each partner owns their contributions. Several services are integrated with EPOS (European Plate Observing System), suggesting open-science access for some components. Commercial licensing would need to be negotiated with the relevant partners.

How quickly does the Rapid Loss Assessment service deliver results after an earthquake?

The deliverable description states the EU RLA service is 'operational and distributing messages to selected and approved subscribers.' While exact response times are not specified in the project data, the system is designed for rapid assessment — meaning minutes rather than the days or weeks of traditional post-earthquake damage evaluation.

Can these tools integrate with our existing monitoring or emergency management systems?

The project was explicitly designed for integration with EPOS Integrated Core Service, ARISTOTLE, and the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. The OEF services run as web-services with defined access rules, and the forecast testing centre outputs are available via a web interface. This standards-based approach suggests straightforward integration with existing monitoring infrastructure.

Is there regulatory alignment for using these forecasts in official risk assessments?

The project worked directly with responsible national agencies in Italy, Turkey, Iceland, Israel, and Switzerland. The risk communication strategy was field-evaluated in Italy, Switzerland, and France in partnership with national authorities. This government involvement suggests the outputs are designed to meet regulatory expectations, though formal certification would depend on each country's requirements.

What happens now that the project has ended — is anyone maintaining these services?

Based on available project data, several services were validated as EPOS services, which provides an institutional home for continued operation. The European forecast testing centre at GFZ and the integration with Copernicus Emergency Management Service suggest ongoing institutional support. However, long-term commercial maintenance arrangements would need to be confirmed with the consortium.

Consortium

Who built it

This is a research-heavy consortium of 28 partners across 13 countries, led by ETH Zurich — one of Europe's top technical universities. With 16 universities and 10 research organizations but only 2 industry partners (7% industry ratio) and 1 SME, the project's strength is deep scientific credibility rather than commercial readiness. The geographic spread is strategically chosen: seismically active countries like Italy, Turkey, and Iceland provide real testing grounds, while partners from Japan, Mexico, and New Zealand bring global earthquake expertise. For a business looking to adopt these tools, the low industry involvement means commercialization will likely require new partnerships — but the scientific validation from 37 principal investigators across 24 institutions provides strong technical credibility.

EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICHCoordinator · CH
VEDURSTOFA ISLANDSparticipant · IS
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY CORPORATION THEUNIVERSITY OF TOKYOinternationalpartner · JP
CENTRO EUROPEO DI FORMAZIONE E RICERCA IN INGEGNERIA SISMICAparticipant · IT
THE CHANCELLOR MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGEparticipant · UK
UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI BERGAMOparticipant · IT
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI NAPOLI FEDERICO IIparticipant · IT
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY CORPORATION KYOTO UNIVERSITYinternationalpartner · JP
GFZ HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR GEOFORSCHUNGparticipant · DE
UNIVERSITE GRENOBLE ALPESparticipant · FR
BAR ILAN UNIVERSITYparticipant · IL
UNITED KINGDOM RESEARCH AND INNOVATIONparticipant · UK
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMIparticipant · NL
ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI OCEANOGRAFIA E DI GEOFISICA SPERIMENTALEthirdparty · IT
ASSOCIATION CENTRE SISMOLOGIQUE EURO-MEDITERRANEENparticipant · FR
UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOLparticipant · UK
UNIVERSITE GUSTAVE EIFFELthirdparty · FR
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNAparticipant · IT
ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIAparticipant · IT
BOGAZICI UNIVERSITESIparticipant · TR
STMICROELECTRONICS SRLparticipant · IT
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRSthirdparty · FR
THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGHparticipant · UK
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO (UNAM)internationalpartner · MX
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAinternationalpartner · US

How to reach the team

Coordinated by ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Search for the RISE project coordinator at ETH Zurich Department of Earth Sciences for direct contact.

Order a report on this consortium See EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to connect with the RISE team about using their earthquake forecasting or rapid loss assessment services for your operations? SciTransfer can arrange a direct introduction to the right technical lead within the consortium.

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