PaCE · Project

AI Tools to Track Populist Narratives and Manage Political Risk for Businesses

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Imagine you run a company in Europe and suddenly the political mood shifts — new populist leaders get elected, regulations change overnight, and your market becomes unpredictable. PaCE brought together researchers from 8 countries to figure out why populist movements grow, what triggers their leadership changes, and how they spread their messages online. They built machine-learning tools that can spot and track populist narratives across the internet, plus computer simulations that model how political attitudes shift over time. Think of it as a political weather forecast — helping you see the storm before it hits your business.

By the numbers

consortium partners

European countries covered

total deliverables produced

SME partners in consortium

30%

industry participation ratio

The business problem

What needed solving

Companies operating across European markets face growing political unpredictability as populist movements reshape regulations, trade policies, and public sentiment. Traditional political risk analysis relies on lagging indicators — elections results and policy announcements — leaving businesses reactive rather than prepared. There is no widely available commercial tool that specifically tracks populist narrative patterns and models how political attitudes shift before they become policy.

The solution

What was built

PaCE produced machine-learning algorithms for identifying and tracking populist narratives across digital media, agent-based simulations of political processes and attitudes for risk analysis, online consultation tools for democratic participation, and a first set of simulation scenarios based on case studies from 8 European countries. A total of 35 deliverables were produced across the project.

Audience

Who needs this

Political risk consulting firms advising multinationals on European market entryCivic technology companies building digital citizen engagement platformsMedia intelligence firms offering corporate narrative monitoring servicesPublic affairs agencies tracking political sentiment for lobbying strategiesInsurance companies assessing political risk for coverage pricing

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Political Risk Consulting

SME

Target: Political risk advisory firms serving multinational corporations

If you are a political risk consultancy helping clients navigate volatile European markets — this project developed machine-learning algorithms for identifying and tracking populist narratives in real time. These tools could strengthen your analytical capabilities, giving clients earlier warning of political shifts across 8 European countries studied. With 35 deliverables produced, the research offers a rich evidence base for building commercial risk products.

GovTech and Civic Technology

SME

Target: Civic tech companies building digital democracy platforms

If you are a civic technology company building tools for citizen engagement — this project created new forms of digital democratic participation and online consultation tools. The agent-based simulation of political processes could be integrated into your platform to help municipalities model citizen sentiment before launching policies. The consortium tested these approaches with real citizens and policy actors during the project.

Media Intelligence and PR

mid-size

Target: Media monitoring and corporate communications firms

If you are a media intelligence firm tracking public discourse for corporate clients — this project built machine-learning tools specifically designed to identify populist narratives across digital channels. These algorithms go beyond generic sentiment analysis to detect specific political messaging patterns. The research covered movements across 8 European countries, providing multilingual training data that is hard to assemble commercially.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to license or access these tools?

Based on available project data, PaCE was a publicly funded Research and Innovation Action, meaning core outputs are likely available under open or favorable licensing terms. However, specific pricing or licensing arrangements for the ML tools and simulation models are not detailed in the project data. Contact the coordinator at Manchester Metropolitan University for commercial terms.

Can these tools work at industrial scale for real-time narrative monitoring?

The project developed machine-learning algorithms for identifying and tracking populist narratives and produced simulation scenarios as a demonstrated deliverable. However, these tools were built in a research context with 10 consortium partners. Scaling to commercial-grade real-time monitoring would likely require additional engineering and infrastructure investment.

Who owns the intellectual property for the ML tools?

As a Horizon 2020 RIA project, IP typically stays with the consortium partners who generated it. The consortium includes 4 SMEs and 3 industry partners across 8 countries, so IP rights may be distributed. Contact Manchester Metropolitan University as coordinator for specific licensing discussions.

What types of populist movements were actually analyzed?

The project analyzed the type, growth, and consequences of populist movements across Europe, with case studies spanning 8 countries (AT, BE, BG, DE, FI, IE, IS, UK). It focused specifically on transitions in movements, especially leadership changes, and how populist movements relate to other political forces. The first set of simulation scenarios was based on this case study analysis.

How current is the data and analysis?

The project ran from February 2019 to April 2022 and is now closed. The political landscape analysis covers pre-pandemic and pandemic-era populism in Europe. While the specific data may need updating, the ML algorithms and simulation methodologies remain applicable to current political dynamics.

Can these tools be integrated with existing media monitoring platforms?

Based on available project data, the ML algorithms were designed for identifying and tracking populist narratives and aiding online consultation. The project produced 35 deliverables total, but technical integration specifications are not detailed in the available data. The consortium included 4 SMEs who may have built integration-ready components.

Consortium

Who built it

The PaCE consortium brings together 10 partners from 8 European countries (AT, BE, BG, DE, FI, IE, IS, UK), led by Manchester Metropolitan University. With 4 universities providing the research backbone and 3 industry partners plus 4 SMEs (30% industry ratio), the consortium leans academic but has meaningful commercial participation. The geographic spread across Western, Northern, and Eastern Europe gives the research genuine cross-cultural depth. For a business looking to license tools or data, the SME partners are the most likely route to commercially-ready components, while the coordinator can facilitate access to the full 35-deliverable output set.

THE MANCHESTER METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITYCoordinator · UK
HELSINGIN YLIOPISTOparticipant · FI
TRILATERAL RESEARCH LIMITEDparticipant · IE
THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY AISBLparticipant · BE
PARIS-LODRON-UNIVERSITAT SALZBURGparticipant · AT
REYKJAVIKURBORGparticipant · IS
TRILATERAL RESEARCH LTDthirdparty · UK
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET DRESDENparticipant · DE

How to reach the team

Manchester Metropolitan University (UK) — search for PaCE project lead in the university's politics or social science department

Order a report on this consortium See THE MANCHESTER METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how PaCE's narrative-tracking tools could strengthen your political risk analysis? SciTransfer can connect you with the right consortium partner.

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