Nunataryuk · Project

Arctic Permafrost Risk Models and Coastal Infrastructure Protection Tools

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Imagine the ground under Arctic towns and pipelines is like a giant freezer — and someone turned down the power. As permafrost thaws, coastlines crumble, buildings tilt, and buried pollution gets released into the ocean. Nunataryuk brought together 28 teams from 14 countries to measure exactly how fast this is happening, map the biggest danger zones, and build risk models so communities and companies can plan ahead instead of react in crisis. They also created an atlas showing where Arctic permafrost is most vulnerable — essentially a weather forecast, but for disappearing ground.

By the numbers

consortium partners

countries involved

project deliverables completed

SMEs in the consortium

industry partners

The business problem

What needed solving

Arctic permafrost is thawing at accelerating rates, threatening billions of euros worth of infrastructure — pipelines, roads, buildings, and industrial installations built on ground that was once permanently frozen. Companies operating in Arctic regions face unpredictable structural damage, environmental liability from released pollutants, and no reliable way to forecast which assets are most at risk.

The solution

What was built

The project delivered a risk model identifying key threats to Arctic coastal infrastructure, an Atlas of Arctic Permafrost mapping vulnerable zones, the CASSCADE database cataloguing carbon in Arctic shelf sediments, and a set of Arctic-specific social and bio-physical indicators with a monitoring model for tracking permafrost thaw in coastal communities — 28 deliverables in total.

Audience

Who needs this

Arctic infrastructure operators (oil & gas, mining, transport)Insurance and reinsurance companies covering Arctic assetsEnvironmental consulting firms doing Arctic impact assessmentsGovernment agencies managing Arctic territorial planningShipping companies using Northern Sea routes affected by coastal erosion

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Arctic Infrastructure & Construction

enterprise

Target: Engineering firms building or maintaining roads, pipelines, and buildings in Arctic regions

If you are an engineering company maintaining infrastructure on permafrost — this project developed a risk model identifying key risks to Arctic coastal structures. Their Arctic-specific indicators and monitoring model can help you predict which assets face the greatest threat from thaw, so you can prioritize reinforcement before damage occurs rather than paying for emergency repairs.

Insurance & Reinsurance

enterprise

Target: Insurers covering Arctic industrial assets and shipping routes

If you are an insurer assessing climate risk exposure in Arctic regions — this project built a risk model with identified key risks and a database of circum-Arctic shelf sediment carbon data (CASSCADE). These tools give you evidence-based inputs for pricing policies on Arctic assets, replacing guesswork with data from 28 research partners across 14 countries.

Environmental Consulting

any

Target: Consultancies advising on Arctic environmental impact assessments

If you are an environmental consultancy working on Arctic development permits — this project produced an Atlas of Arctic Permafrost and a set of social and bio-physical indicators for monitoring permafrost thaw. These ready-made assessment tools can strengthen your environmental impact reports with peer-reviewed data from a 6-year, 14-country research effort.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access these risk models and data?

The project was funded as an EU Research and Innovation Action, meaning core outputs like the Atlas of Arctic Permafrost and the CASSCADE database are likely available under open-access terms. Licensing details for specific tools should be discussed directly with the coordinator at Alfred Wegener Institute.

Can these tools work at industrial scale for large infrastructure portfolios?

The risk model and Arctic indicators were designed to cover the entire circum-Arctic region, built with data from 14 countries. This suggests they can handle portfolio-level assessments across multiple Arctic sites. However, site-specific adaptation may be needed for local conditions.

Who owns the IP and how can we license it?

As an EU-funded RIA project, intellectual property is typically retained by the consortium partners who created each deliverable. The coordinator Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany is the primary contact for licensing discussions on the risk model, atlas, and monitoring indicators.

Does this comply with current Arctic environmental regulations?

The project was designed to support Arctic adaptation and mitigation strategies, working directly with Arctic coastal communities and indigenous societies through a dedicated forum. Based on available project data, the indicators and monitoring tools align with Arctic environmental governance needs.

How long before these tools are ready for commercial use?

The project ran from 2017 to 2023 and is now closed, meaning all 28 deliverables are complete. The risk model, atlas, and databases exist as finished research outputs. Integration into commercial decision-support software would require additional engineering work.

Can these tools integrate with our existing risk management systems?

The CASSCADE database and Arctic indicators provide structured data that could feed into existing GIS and risk platforms. Based on available project data, the outputs are research-grade datasets and models rather than plug-and-play software modules, so integration work would be needed.

Consortium

Who built it

The Nunataryuk consortium is research-heavy: 15 universities and 7 research organizations form the core, with just 5 industry partners (18% ratio). The 6 SMEs in the group suggest some commercial awareness, but this is fundamentally an academic-led effort. Spread across 14 countries including Arctic nations (Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Canada), the consortium has strong geographic coverage of the problem area. For a business looking to use these outputs, the key contact is the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany — one of the world's top polar research centers — which coordinated the entire 28-partner effort over 6 years.

ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNGCoordinator · DE
NORDURSLODAGATTIN EHFparticipant · IS
INSTITUTO DE GEOGRAFIA E ORDENAMENTO DO TERRITORIO DA UNIVERSIDADE DELISBOAparticipant · PT
OULUN YLIOPISTOparticipant · FI
STICHTING VUparticipant · NL
ARGANS LIMITEDparticipant · UK
UNIVERSITAT WIENparticipant · AT
NORDREGIOparticipant · SE
STIFTELSEN GRID ARENDALparticipant · NO
UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURGparticipant · DE
UNIVERSITE LIBRE DE BRUXELLESparticipant · BE
LA ROCHELLE UNIVERSITEthirdparty · FR
GFZ HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR GEOFORSCHUNGparticipant · DE
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHEparticipant · IT
INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSEparticipant · AT
UNIVERSITETET I OSLOparticipant · NO
DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITETparticipant · DK
ACRI-HEparticipant · FR
MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EVparticipant · DE
UNIVERSITE LAVALparticipant · CA
B. GEOS GMBHparticipant · AT
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRSparticipant · FR
NORGES TEKNISK-NATURVITENSKAPELIGE UNIVERSITET NTNUparticipant · NO
UNIVERSITE DE VERSAILLES SAINT-QUENTIN EN YVELINESparticipant · FR
STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITETparticipant · SE
SORBONNE UNIVERSITEparticipant · FR

How to reach the team

Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany — reach their technology transfer or partnerships office

Order a report on this consortium See ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNG profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

SciTransfer can connect you with the Nunataryuk team to discuss access to their risk models, permafrost atlas, and Arctic monitoring indicators for your specific business needs.

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