ITFLOWS · Project

AI-Powered Migration Flow Prediction and Public Sentiment Monitoring for Governments and Cities

digitalTestedTRL 5Thin data (2/5)

Imagine you run a city and suddenly thousands of people arrive needing housing, schools, and healthcare — but you had no warning. ITFLOWS built a prediction tool (the EUMigraTool) that works like a weather forecast for migration: it uses data from multiple sources to tell local authorities where people are likely to move and when. It also monitors social media to detect rising tensions between communities before they escalate, giving officials time to act. The goal is to replace guesswork with evidence-based planning across reception, relocation, and integration.

By the numbers

consortium partners

countries represented in consortium

total project deliverables

SMEs in the consortium

The business problem

What needed solving

Cities and regional authorities across Europe face unpredictable surges in migrant arrivals, leaving them scrambling to provide housing, healthcare, and integration services. Without reliable forecasting tools, resources are either wasted on overcapacity or critically short when needed most. Rising public tensions around migration add another layer of risk that traditional government systems cannot monitor or anticipate.

The solution

What was built

The project built the EUMigraTool — a modular ICT platform that predicts migration flows and identifies risks of community tensions. Key deliverables include a social media analysis tool for monitoring public attitudes toward migration using scalable big-data processing, visual analytics dashboards for exploring simulation results, and predictive models covering reception, relocation, settlement, and integration phases. In total, 43 deliverables were produced across the 3-year project.

Audience

Who needs this

Municipal and regional governments managing migrant reception and integrationNational migration agencies and border management authoritiesHumanitarian NGOs coordinating refugee assistance across EuropeGovTech software companies building public administration platformsPolicy research institutes advising governments on migration strategy

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Public Administration & Municipal Services

enterprise

Target: Municipal governments and regional authorities managing migrant reception

If you are a city or regional authority struggling to plan reception capacity and integration services — this project developed the EUMigraTool, a modular prediction platform that forecasts migration flows to your area. It helps you allocate housing, language programs, and social services proactively instead of reactively, validated by practitioners across 8 European countries.

Humanitarian & Development Organizations

any

Target: NGOs and international organizations coordinating migrant assistance

If you are a humanitarian organization trying to position resources along migration routes — this project built predictive models that analyze drivers and patterns of migration to forecast where assistance will be needed. The tool was designed with input from first-line practitioners and civil-society organizations through an iterative validation process.

GovTech & Public Safety Software

SME

Target: Software companies developing tools for government migration management

If you are a GovTech company building platforms for public authorities — this project developed a social media analysis tool that monitors public attitudes toward migration at scale, plus visual analytics dashboards for exploring simulation results. These modules could be integrated into existing government information systems to add predictive and sentiment-monitoring capabilities.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to deploy or license this technology?

No pricing or licensing model is publicly available. ITFLOWS was a publicly funded Research and Innovation Action (RIA), so the core tools may be available under open or negotiated licensing. Contact the coordinator at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona to discuss access terms.

Can this work at the scale of a national migration system?

The EUMigraTool was designed for use across the EU, covering reception, relocation, settlement, and integration phases. The social media analysis component uses distributed computing platforms like Apache Spark and Hadoop to handle large-scale data. Based on available project data, the tool was validated with practitioners across 8 countries.

Who owns the intellectual property?

IP from RIA projects typically stays with the consortium partners who developed each component. The consortium includes 14 partners across 8 countries, with Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona as coordinator. Licensing terms would need to be negotiated with the relevant IP-holding partners.

Has this been tested with real end users?

Yes. The project explicitly states that all solutions had fitness for purpose validated by policy-makers and practitioners in cooperation with civil-society organisations in a dynamic and iterative process. The EUMigraTool targets first-line practitioners, second-level reception organisations, and municipalities.

What data sources does the prediction tool use?

The system uses multiple sources of information including social media data (notably Twitter), migration statistics, and contextual data on drivers and patterns of migration. The social media analysis tool includes filtering and natural language processing to track public sentiment.

How long would integration take?

Based on available project data, the EUMigraTool is modular by design, meaning components like flow prediction and sentiment monitoring can be adopted independently. The project ran for 3 years (2020-2023) and produced 43 deliverables including software prototypes and visual analytics tools.

Does this comply with EU data protection rules?

The project produced a Data Management Plan following FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable). Given the sensitivity of migration data, GDPR compliance and ethical considerations were built into the project design. A Gender Action Plan also addressed vulnerable subgroups of migrants.

Consortium

Who built it

The ITFLOWS consortium of 14 partners across 8 countries is heavily research-oriented, with 6 research organizations and 4 universities making up the core. Only 1 industrial partner and 2 SMEs participate, giving a low industry ratio of 7%. This signals strong academic foundations but limited commercial pull. For a business looking to adopt this technology, the low industry presence means you would likely be among the first commercial users — which is both an opportunity and a risk. The coordinator, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, is a well-established Spanish university, and the geographic spread across Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, and the UK provides broad European validation context.

UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONACoordinator · ES
ASSOCIAZIONE DELLA CROCE ROSSA ITALIANAparticipant · IT
ETHNIKO KENTRO EREVNAS KAI TECHNOLOGIKIS ANAPTYXISparticipant · EL
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIESparticipant · BE
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALIparticipant · IT
TERRACOM AEparticipant · EL
INSTITUT FUER WELTWIRTSCHAFTparticipant · DE
EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTEparticipant · IT
MUNSTER TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITYparticipant · IE
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACYparticipant · BG
FIZ KARLSRUHE - LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT FUR INFORMATIONSINFRASTRUKTUR GMBHparticipant · DE
BRUNEL UNIVERSITY LONDONparticipant · UK
OXFAM ITALIA ASSOCIAZIONE RICONOSCIUTA, ORGANIZZAZIONE NON GOVERNATIVA, ENTE DEL TERZO SETTOREparticipant · IT

How to reach the team

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain) — use SciTransfer's coordinator lookup to find the project lead's contact details

Order a report on this consortium See UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

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