ITACA · Project

Simulation Tool That Predicts Why Air Traffic Tech Upgrades Stall — and How to Fix It

transportPrototypeTRL 4Thin data (2/5)

itaca-h2020.eu

Imagine you run an airport and there's a better radar system available, but nobody wants to switch because it's expensive, risky, and requires everyone else to switch too. ITACA built a computer simulation — like SimCity but for air traffic management — that models all the players (airlines, airports, tech vendors, regulators) and predicts what happens when you change the rules to encourage upgrades. They tested it with real industry people playing through scenarios, so the model reflects how decisions actually get made. The end result is a tool that lets policymakers test "what if we offered subsidies?" or "what if we mandated new standards?" before spending real money.

By the numbers

consortium partners across the ATM value chain

countries represented (Belgium, Spain, Sweden)

SMEs in the consortium, including the coordinator

total project deliverables produced

50%

industry partners in the consortium

The business problem

What needed solving

Air traffic management is stuck with aging technology because upgrading requires dozens of organizations to coordinate simultaneously — airlines, airports, service providers, regulators — and nobody wants to move first. This coordination failure costs the industry billions in inefficiency and delays modernization that could improve safety and capacity. Decision-makers lack reliable tools to predict which policies or incentives would actually break the deadlock.

The solution

What was built

ITACA built an agent-based simulation model that replicates how ATM organizations decide whether to adopt new technologies, validated through participatory simulation games with real industry participants. The project delivered 7 deliverables including the simulation software with full documentation (requirements, design, test, and user manual), plus policy recommendations for accelerating technology uptake.

Audience

Who needs this

Air Navigation Service Providers planning technology modernization roadmapsATM equipment and software vendors struggling with slow market adoptionAviation regulators and SESAR deployment managers designing incentive policiesTransport consultancies advising on aviation modernization strategyAirport operators evaluating coordinated infrastructure upgrades

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Air Navigation Services

enterprise

Target: Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) managing national or regional airspace

If you are an ANSP struggling with slow modernization of your technology stack — this project developed an agent-based simulation model that maps how your organization and your partners make adoption decisions. It lets you test different incentive structures and regulatory scenarios before committing resources, so you can identify the cheapest path to getting new systems deployed across your network.

Aviation Technology

mid-size

Target: ATM equipment manufacturers and software vendors selling to airports and ANSPs

If you are a technology vendor frustrated that your proven solutions sit on the shelf because buyers can't coordinate upgrades — this project built a simulation of the entire adoption lifecycle involving 4 partners across 3 countries. It reveals which barriers (cost, coordination, regulation) block your customers most, so you can tailor your go-to-market strategy and lobby for the right policy changes.

Aviation Consulting & Policy

SME

Target: Consultancies advising aviation authorities or SESAR deployment managers

If you are a consulting firm advising regulators or deployment managers on how to accelerate ATM modernization — this project delivered a validated policy assessment tool with participatory simulation experiments involving real industry participants. You could license or adapt this model to run scenario analyses for your clients instead of relying on static reports and expert guesswork.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to use or license this simulation tool?

The project data does not include pricing or licensing terms. The coordinator is NOMMON SOLUTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES SL, a Spanish SME specializing in analytics, which may offer commercial licensing or consulting engagements around the model. Direct contact would be needed to discuss terms.

Can this model work at industrial scale for real policy decisions?

The model was validated through participatory simulation experiments with actual ATM industry participants, which is a step beyond lab testing. However, it was developed as a research tool under a SESAR exploratory research call, not as a commercial product. Scaling it for routine policy use would likely require further engineering and calibration.

Who owns the intellectual property and can I use the model?

The project was funded under Horizon 2020 as a Research and Innovation Action. IP typically stays with the consortium partners. The demo deliverable includes an agent-based simulation model with full documentation (requirements, design, test, and user manual), suggesting it was built for potential reuse. Licensing terms should be negotiated with the coordinator.

How was the simulation validated — is it trustworthy?

ITACA used participatory simulation experiments (serious gaming) with real ATM industry participants to validate the behavioral assumptions in the agent-based model. This means the model's predictions about how organizations make technology decisions are grounded in observed behavior, not just theory.

What specific outputs does the tool produce?

The model simulates the full research-and-innovation lifecycle for ATM technologies, showing how different policies and regulations affect adoption speed and distribution of costs and benefits across different players. It produces scenario comparisons and policy recommendations backed by simulation data.

Is there regulatory alignment with EU aviation modernization plans?

Yes. The project was funded under the SESAR exploratory research program (topic SESAR-ER4-07-2019), which directly feeds into the EU's Single European Sky ATM Research initiative. Its policy recommendations are designed to align with and inform SESAR deployment decisions.

Consortium

Who built it

The ITACA consortium is compact — 4 partners from 3 countries (Belgium, Spain, Sweden) with a 50/50 split between industry and academia. The coordinator, NOMMON SOLUTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES SL, is a Spanish SME specializing in data analytics and transport modeling, which means the commercial perspective was built into the project from day one. With 2 SMEs in a 4-partner team, this is a lean, execution-focused group rather than a sprawling research network. The mix of 1 university and 1 research organization alongside 2 industry players suggests the model was built to be practically useful, not just academically interesting.

NOMMON SOLUTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES SLCoordinator · ES
TRANSPORT & MOBILITY LEUVENparticipant · BE
CENTRO DE REFERENCIA INVESTIGACION DESARROLLO E INNOVACION ATM, A.I.E.participant · ES
KUNGLIGA TEKNISKA HOEGSKOLANparticipant · SE

How to reach the team

NOMMON SOLUTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES SL is a Spanish SME — reach out via their company website or the project website for licensing and collaboration inquiries.

Order a report on this consortium See NOMMON SOLUTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES SL profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how ITACA's ATM adoption simulation could support your technology deployment or policy analysis? SciTransfer can arrange an introduction to the project team and help assess fit for your needs.

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