SciTransfer
IAM COMPACT · Project

Climate Risk and Policy Forecasting Tools for Global Business Strategy

environmentTestedTRL 5

Imagine trying to navigate a ship through a storm using a map that only shows the wind, but ignores the waves and the crew's mood. This project builds a better map by combining hard climate data with human behavior and political reality. It helps countries and companies see not just where they want to go, but if the path is actually possible in the real world.

By the numbers
62
models in IAM PARIS
5,759
stakeholders in database
23
documentation videos
14
policy briefs
The business problem

What needed solving

Companies rely on climate models that ignore human behavior and political instability, leading to failed sustainability targets. Current tools are often 'black boxes' that don't account for the extreme uncertainties of the post-2030 landscape.

The solution

What was built

A collection of 62 open-access models, 23 instructional videos, and a policy catalogue. It includes a Policy Response Mechanism and a database of 5,759 experts to validate scenarios.

Audience

Who needs this

Chief Sustainability Officers at energy firmsGovernment policy advisors in non-high-income countriesESG risk analysts at global banksStrategic planners in heavy manufacturing
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Energy
enterprise
Target: Utility provider

If you are a utility provider dealing with unpredictable regulatory shifts in the post-2030 period — this project developed open-access models that stress-test for extremes. This allows you to plan infrastructure investments that remain viable even under deep uncertainty.

Management Consulting
mid-size
Target: Sustainability consultancy

If you are a consultancy dealing with clients in non-high-income countries who lack local climate data — this project developed capacity building tools and 62 linked models. You can provide more accurate, locally-owned NDC commitments for your clients.

Finance
enterprise
Target: ESG Investment Fund

If you are an investment fund dealing with unrealistic carbon-neutral baselines in portfolio companies — this project developed a policy catalogue and macroeconomic modelling of distributional impacts. This helps you identify which green assets are actually feasible versus those based on unrealistic assumptions.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What is the cost or price to use these tools?

Based on available project data, the models are produced as open-access, meaning there is no direct purchase price mentioned for the software deliverables.

Can this be scaled to an industrial level?

The project uses a diverse ensemble of 62 models and a database of 5,759 participants, suggesting the methodology is designed for global and regional scale across major emitters like the USA, China, and India.

Who owns the IP and how is it licensed?

The project emphasizes open science, utilizing Zenodo communities and open-access model linking protocols, implying a non-proprietary licensing approach.

How does this help with new government regulations?

It specifically supports the preparation of national policies for the post-2030 period and the design of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

How long does it take to integrate these models into a business process?

Based on available project data, the project period runs from 2022 to 2025, but specific integration timelines for external businesses are not provided.

Consortium

Who built it

The consortium is heavily academic, with 15 universities and 6 research institutions across 18 countries. Business involvement is low, with only 1 industry partner and 2 SMEs (a 4% industry ratio), suggesting the output is primarily a scientific toolset rather than a commercial product. However, the reach is vast, involving major emitters like China, India, and the US.

How to reach the team

Contact ETHNICON METSOVION POLYTECHNION for access to the open-access model collection.

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Contact us to find the specific model from the 62 available that fits your industry's risk profile.

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