If you are a pension fund manager dealing with unpredictable retirement ages and longevity — this project developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that simulates household savings and retirement decisions. This allows for better risk assessment of long-term payouts.
Predictive Modeling for Workforce and Consumer Behavior in an Aging European Society
Imagine trying to plan a party, but you don't know if your guests will be 20 or 80, or if they can even afford to come. This work builds a giant digital simulator to figure out how people spend, save, and work as they get older. It helps planners prepare for future shocks, like pandemics or economic crashes, so that society doesn't break when the population shifts.
What needed solving
Companies and governments struggle to predict how an aging population and frequent economic shocks will affect labor supply, consumer spending, and healthcare demand.
What was built
A dynamic general equilibrium simulation code and a transdisciplinary policy lab for evidence-informed decision making.
Who needs this
Who can put this to work
If you are a care home operator dealing with shifting demand for elderly services — this project developed a policy lab and simulation code for health and care systems. This helps in planning capacity based on life course health investments.
If you are a workforce planner dealing with labor shortages due to aging populations — this project developed models for labor supply in the market and at home. This helps in adjusting recruitment and retention strategies for older employees.
Quick answers
What is the cost or price to implement these models?
Based on available project data, no commercial pricing or implementation costs are provided as this is an EU-funded research project.
Can this be scaled to an industrial level?
The project develops simulation code and a policy lab to engage business and politics, suggesting the models are designed for systemic application, though specific industrial scaling metrics are not listed.
Who owns the IP and how is licensing handled?
The project follows open science practices, including a policy review and database, but specific licensing terms for the simulation code are not detailed in the provided text.
What is the timeline for the results?
The project runs from 2023-02-01 to 2026-01-31.
How does this integrate with existing business data?
Based on available project data, the project uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to integrate household decisions, firm behavior, and public sector components.
Who built it
The consortium is heavily academic, with 4 universities and 2 research institutions, reflecting the project's focus on complex socioeconomic modeling. However, it includes 1 industry partner and 1 other entity across 7 countries, providing a bridge to practical application through a transdisciplinary policy lab.
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