FutureMARES · Project

Climate-Risk Maps and Nature-Based Tools to Protect Marine Business Assets

environmentPrototypeTRL 4Thin data (2/5)

Imagine the ocean as a neighborhood — climate change is reshaping which "tenants" (fish, shellfish, seagrass) can live where, and that directly hits anyone who depends on the sea for income. FutureMARES spent four years mapping where marine life will thrive and where it will struggle under different warming scenarios across Europe. They built computer models that predict these shifts and tested nature-based fixes — like restoring seagrass beds that act as carbon sponges and coastal shields — at real demonstration sites. The result is a practical toolkit that tells coastal managers and seafood businesses what to expect and what actions actually pay off.

By the numbers

research partners in the consortium

countries covered

EUR 8,555,905

total EU funding

project deliverables produced

SMEs in the consortium

The business problem

What needed solving

Coastal and marine businesses — from aquaculture farms to port operators to insurers — are making long-term investment decisions based on today's ocean conditions, while climate change is actively reshaping where marine species live, how productive fishing grounds will be, and how vulnerable coastlines are. Without reliable projections of these shifts and proven strategies to adapt, companies risk stranded assets, declining yields, and unpriced environmental liabilities.

The solution

What was built

The project built ensemble climate projection models that identify marine hotspots and refugia, social-ecological vulnerability assessments ranking climate impacts on ecosystem services, and an interactive Bayesian network web tool for visualizing nature-based solution strategies (demonstrated for the Bay of Biscay). Across 25 deliverables, they also developed climate-ready conservation action plans and Nature-inclusive Harvesting strategies for seafood.

Audience

Who needs this

Aquaculture companies planning farm locations and species selection under climate uncertaintyMarine insurance underwriters pricing coastal and offshore climate riskPort authorities and coastal developers assessing long-term infrastructure vulnerabilityEnvironmental consultancies designing marine protected areas and coastal restoration projectsSeafood supply chain companies managing sourcing risk from shifting fish stocks

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Aquaculture & Seafood

any

Target: Aquaculture farms and seafood harvesting companies

If you are an aquaculture operator dealing with shifting fish stocks and unpredictable yields due to warming seas — this project developed Nature-inclusive Harvesting strategies for both capture and culture seafood. Their models project where keystone species will move under different climate scenarios, letting you plan site locations and species selection years ahead instead of reacting to losses. The work was validated across 15 countries with 36 research partners.

Coastal Infrastructure & Insurance

enterprise

Target: Coastal property developers, port authorities, and marine insurers

If you are a coastal insurer or port operator struggling to price climate risk for marine and coastal assets — this project built social-ecological vulnerability assessments that rank how severely climate change will hit specific coastal areas and services. Their ensemble physical-biogeochemical projections identify climate hotspots and refugia, giving you data to differentiate high-risk zones from safer ones. The economic cost-and-tradeoff analyses from real-world demonstration sites can inform your risk models.

Environmental Consulting & Marine Conservation

SME

Target: Environmental consultancies advising on marine protected areas and coastal restoration

If you are an environmental consultancy advising governments on where to place marine protected areas or how to restore degraded coastlines — this project developed climate-ready conservation actions that account for future habitat suitability shifts. Their interactive Bayesian network web tool lets you visualize implementation strategies for nature-based solutions and their expected outcomes. The tools cover restoration of habitat-forming species, food web protection, and endangered species conservation across multiple European seas.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access FutureMARES tools and data?

The project was publicly funded with EUR 8,555,905 under Horizon 2020 as a Research and Innovation Action. Core research outputs and models are likely available through open-access channels. Commercial licensing terms for specific tools or datasets would need to be discussed with the coordinating institute in the Netherlands.

Can these models work at industrial scale for my region?

The project covered 15 countries and used ensemble physical-biogeochemical projections, meaning the models are designed for broad geographic coverage. However, the interactive web demo shown so far covers a single case study (Bay of Biscay). Scaling to your specific region would likely require calibration with local data.

Who owns the intellectual property?

As a Horizon 2020 RIA project, IP is typically retained by the consortium partners who generated it — in this case led by STICHTING NEDERLANDSE WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK INSTITUTEN (NWO) in the Netherlands. Licensing arrangements would need to be negotiated with the relevant partners. Based on available project data, 25 deliverables were produced across the consortium.

Is this research or something ready to deploy?

This is primarily a research project. While it produced an interactive web tool and conducted analyses at real-world demonstration sites, the outputs are decision-support models and vulnerability assessments rather than turnkey commercial products. The consortium had zero dedicated industry partners, which signals research-stage maturity.

How does this differ from existing climate risk tools?

FutureMARES specifically integrates species distribution shifts, ecosystem service impacts, and economic trade-off analysis into one pipeline — connecting ecological projections directly to business-relevant outcomes like seafood productivity and coastal protection value. Their nature-based solutions approach also provides actionable remediation strategies, not just risk scores.

What regulatory value does this have?

The project was co-developed with policy-makers and managers, and its vulnerability assessments align with EU climate adaptation and marine spatial planning requirements. Companies facing environmental impact assessments or seeking to comply with EU biodiversity and climate regulations could use FutureMARES outputs as evidence for their submissions.

Can I get ongoing support or updates?

The project closed in August 2024. Ongoing support would depend on individual consortium partners continuing the work. The project website at futuremares.eu may still host tools and data. Based on available project data, 36 partners across 15 countries were involved, so multiple contact points exist for follow-up collaboration.

Consortium

Who built it

The FutureMARES consortium is heavily research-oriented: 23 research organizations and 9 universities, with zero dedicated industry partners and only 3 SMEs out of 36 total partners. This composition across 15 countries gives the project strong scientific credibility and geographic coverage but signals limited commercial translation so far. For a business looking to adopt these tools, the absence of industry partners means no company has yet validated the commercial viability of the outputs. The coordinating institute is NWO in the Netherlands, a major national research funding body — a credible but purely academic lead. Any business engagement would be a first-mover opportunity rather than joining an established commercial pipeline.

STICHTING NEDERLANDSE WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK INSTITUTENCoordinator · NL
ASSOCIACAO BIOPOLISparticipant · PT
AARHUS UNIVERSITETparticipant · DK
THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR ENVIRONMENT, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRSparticipant · UK
WCMC LBGparticipant · UK
PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY LIMITEDparticipant · UK
CONSORZIO DI GESTIONE DELL'AREA MARINA PROTETTA DEL PROMONTORIO DI PORTOFINOparticipant · IT
SUOMEN YMPARISTOKESKUSparticipant · FI
ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKISparticipant · EL
HELLENIC CENTRE FOR MARINE RESEARCHparticipant · EL
UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURGparticipant · DE
AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICASparticipant · ES
JOHANN HEINRICH VON THUENEN-INSTITUT, BUNDESFORSCHUNGSINSTITUT FUER LAENDLICHE RAEUME, WALD UND FISCHEREIparticipant · DE
UNIVERSITA DI PISAparticipant · IT
ISRAEL OCEANOGRAPHIC AND LIMNOLOGICAL RESEARCH LIMITEDparticipant · IL
SVERIGES LANTBRUKSUNIVERSITETparticipant · SE
CENTRO DE CIENCIAS DO MAR DO ALGARVEparticipant · PT
STICHTING DELTARESparticipant · NL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTONparticipant · UK
DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITETparticipant · DK
NORSK INSTITUTT FOR VANNFORSKNING STIparticipant · NO
FUNDACION AZTI - AZTI FUNDAZIOAparticipant · ES
CENTRO INTERDISCIPLINAR DE INVESTIGACAO MARINHA E AMBIENTALparticipant · PT
MARINE BIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED KINGDOMparticipant · UK
INSTITUT NATIONAL DE RECHERCHE POUR L'AGRICULTURE, L'ALIMENTATION ET L'ENVIRONNEMENTparticipant · FR
FONDAZIONE CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEOSUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIparticipant · IT
HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR OZEANFORSCHUNG KIEL (GEOMAR)participant · DE
INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENTparticipant · FR
ICETA INSTITUTO DE CIENCIAS, TECNOLOGIAS E AGROAMBIENTE DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTOparticipant · PT
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRSthirdparty · FR
UNIVERSIDAD DE VIGOparticipant · ES
STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITETparticipant · SE
STICHTING WAGENINGEN RESEARCHparticipant · NL

How to reach the team

The coordinator is STICHTING NEDERLANDSE WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK INSTITUTEN (NWO) in the Netherlands. SciTransfer can facilitate an introduction to the relevant research team.

Order a report on this consortium See STICHTING NEDERLANDSE WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK INSTITUTEN profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how FutureMARES climate-risk models could inform your marine business decisions? SciTransfer can connect you directly with the research team and help translate their tools to your specific use case.

Order a report on this topic More in Environment & Climate