Imagine trying to predict a storm at sea, but you can only see the clouds an hour before they hit. Instead of guessing when the storm starts, this system waits for the first drop of rain and then accurately predicts how bad the storm will get and when it will end. It uses simple ground-based sensors to give satellite operators a clear heads-up to protect their equipment.
Satellite operators cannot accurately predict the start of space weather events, and current L1 data only provides a one-hour lead time. This lack of actionable data leads to inefficient asset protection and increased risk of hardware failure.
A complex wave propagation model comprising magnetospheric, transionospheric, and subionospheric submodels to forecast radiation belt dynamics using ground-based inputs.
If you are a fleet operator dealing with unpredictable radiation spikes that damage electronics — this project developed a scenario-driven forecast that predicts the most severe flux reached and the time to the end of the event. This allows for precise timing of protective measures.
If you are a hardware designer dealing with radiation-induced component failure — this project developed physics-based models driven by ground-based inputs that identify the time to the most severe environment. This data helps in refining shielding requirements for assets in space.
If you are a security agency dealing with the loss of critical orbital assets during solar events — this project developed a real-time refined forecast system. It provides actionable data on event duration and severity to maintain operational continuity.
Based on available project data, no commercial pricing is listed, but the project emphasizes using simple and affordable ground-based real-time inputs to reduce costs.
The project is currently in the development and verification phase, having created a complex wave propagation model with three submodels. It is not yet described as a scaled industrial product.
Based on available project data, there is no specific information regarding patents or licensing agreements for the developed models.
The system provides three specific actionable characteristics: time to most severe environment, most severe flux, and time to end of event, which are designed to be used by spacecraft operators.
The project period runs from 2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31, suggesting the final results will be available by the end of 2025.
The consortium is purely academic and research-driven, consisting of 6 partners from 6 countries. With 2 universities and 4 research organizations, there is a 0% industry ratio, indicating the current output is a scientific tool rather than a commercial product.
Contact EOTVOS LORAND TUDOMANYEGYETEM in Hungary
Contact us to bridge the gap between these physics models and commercial satellite operations.
