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EU-CIRCLE · Project

Climate Risk Modeling Tool That Predicts How Extreme Weather Breaks Infrastructure Networks

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Imagine a power grid, a water system, and a highway network all connected like dominoes. When a flood hits, knocking out one piece can trigger failures across all of them — a cascade nobody fully predicted. EU-CIRCLE built a computer simulation called SimICI that maps these hidden connections and shows what happens to your infrastructure when climate events strike. Think of it as a stress test for cities and utilities, the way banks get stress-tested for financial crises.

By the numbers
21
consortium partners involved
9
countries represented in testing
63
total deliverables produced
EUR 7,283,525
EU research investment
6
industry partners in consortium
29%
industry participation ratio
The business problem

What needed solving

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, but most infrastructure operators still manage their assets in silos — power grids, water systems, and transport networks each have separate risk models. When a flood or heatwave hits, failures cascade across these interconnected systems in ways nobody predicted. The real cost isn't just the direct damage — it's the domino effect that multiplies losses across sectors.

The solution

What was built

The project built SimICI, an end-to-end simulation platform that models how climate events cascade through interconnected infrastructure networks. It delivered 63 outputs including 2 demonstrable deployments — a working integrated platform and tested climate scenarios — designed to let users plug in their own infrastructure data and run customized impact assessments.

Audience

Who needs this

National grid operators assessing climate vulnerability across energy networksMunicipal authorities managing flood risk for interconnected city infrastructureInsurance companies pricing climate risk for infrastructure portfoliosClimate risk consultancies advising infrastructure investorsPort and coastal authorities preparing for rising sea levels and storm surges
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Energy & Utilities
enterprise
Target: Electric grid operators, gas distribution companies, district heating providers

If you are an energy utility dealing with increasing storm damage and unexpected outages — this project developed the SimICI simulation platform that models how extreme weather cascades through interconnected energy networks. It was tested with 21 partners across 9 countries and produced 63 deliverables including deployable scenario tools. You can use it to identify your weakest links before the next climate event hits.

Water Management
enterprise
Target: Municipal water authorities, flood defense agencies, coastal infrastructure managers

If you are a water management authority dealing with rising flood risk and aging infrastructure — this project built an end-to-end modeling environment that simulates how climate pressures affect water systems and their connections to transport and energy networks. With input from 6 research organizations and 6 industry partners, it delivers impact assessments tailored to your specific infrastructure data.

Insurance & Risk Consulting
mid-size
Target: Infrastructure insurers, climate risk consultancies, reinsurance firms

If you are an insurer or risk consultant struggling to price climate risk for interconnected infrastructure — this project created a modeling environment where you can plug in your own infrastructure data and run customized impact assessments. The platform was designed to be open and accessible, letting you define tailored risk models rather than relying on generic assumptions.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to access or license this technology?

The project was publicly funded with EUR 7,283,525 under Horizon 2020 as a Research and Innovation Action. The platform was designed to be open and accessible to all interested parties. Specific licensing terms would need to be discussed with the coordinator, NCSR Demokritos in Greece.

Can this work at industrial scale for a national infrastructure operator?

The SimICI platform was built to handle interconnected infrastructure networks across multiple sectors — energy, transport, water, and buildings. It was tested with partners from 9 countries and designed so users can introduce their own infrastructure data and run customized impact assessments at whatever scale they need.

Who owns the intellectual property and can I use it commercially?

IP was developed under Horizon 2020 rules, meaning results are owned by the consortium partners who created them. The project explicitly stated the platform would be open and accessible to interested parties. Commercial licensing terms should be discussed directly with the coordinator at NCSR Demokritos.

Has this been tested with real infrastructure data or just in theory?

The project produced 2 demo deliverables — a deployable integrated SimICI system and demonstrable EU-CIRCLE scenarios. These indicate real-world testing beyond theoretical modeling. With 63 total deliverables over a 3-year project, the work went well beyond conceptual design.

How does this handle cross-border infrastructure dependencies?

This was specifically designed as a pan-European tool. The consortium spanned 9 countries (Cyprus, Germany, Greece, France, Croatia, Italy, Norway, Poland, UK) with 21 partners, giving it direct exposure to cross-border infrastructure challenges and regulatory differences.

What infrastructure sectors does this actually cover?

Based on the project objectives, it covers energy, transportation, buildings, marine infrastructure, and water management. The key value is modeling the interdependencies between these sectors — how a failure in one cascades into others during extreme weather.

Is this ready to deploy or still experimental?

The project ran from 2015 to 2018 and delivered a demonstrable deployment of the integrated SimICI platform. This suggests a working tool that was tested in realistic scenarios, though commercial deployment would likely require further customization for your specific infrastructure.

Consortium

Who built it

The 21-partner consortium across 9 countries is well-balanced for a climate infrastructure project: 6 industry players (29% ratio), 6 universities, and 6 research organizations bring both scientific depth and practical grounding. The 4 SMEs add agility. Greece's NCSR Demokritos coordinated, with partners spanning Northern Europe (Norway, Germany, UK), Southern Europe (Greece, Italy, Cyprus, France, Croatia), and Poland — giving the tool exposure to vastly different climate risks and infrastructure types. For a business buyer, the key signal is that this was not a purely academic exercise: nearly a third of the consortium came from industry, and the deliverables include deployable demonstrations, not just papers.

How to reach the team

NCSR Demokritos (Greece) — National Center for Scientific Research, one of Greece's largest research institutions

Order a report on this consortiumSee NATIONAL CENTER FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH "DEMOKRITOS" profile →
Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want an introduction to the EU-CIRCLE team to discuss how SimICI can model climate risks for your infrastructure? SciTransfer can arrange a direct connection.

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