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EPOC · Project

Advanced Ocean Circulation Forecasting for Climate Risk and Weather Prediction

environmentPrototypeTRL 3Thin data (2/5)

Imagine the ocean has a giant conveyor belt that moves heat and salt around the planet to keep temperatures stable. Right now, we aren't sure if this belt is slowing down or might even stop, which would cause wild weather changes in Europe. This work uses super-detailed computer maps and old climate records to figure out exactly how this belt works so we can predict future climate shifts more accurately.

By the numbers
10
times finer grid spacing in models compared to standard models
1993
start year for diagnosing AMOC variability via observations
1950
start year for re-evaluation of paleo-proxies
The business problem

What needed solving

Current climate models have low confidence in predicting the magnitude of ocean circulation decline and whether a collapse will occur by 2100. This uncertainty makes it impossible for businesses to accurately price long-term climate risks in Europe.

The solution

What was built

High-resolution coupled climate models and a new conceptual framework for ocean circulation. It also includes a next-generation observing system for monitoring ocean variability.

Audience

Who needs this

Climate risk analysts at insurance companiesGovernmental environmental planning agenciesAgricultural commodity hedge fundsMaritime infrastructure developers
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Insurance
enterprise
Target: Reinsurance firms

If you are a reinsurance firm dealing with unpredictable extreme weather patterns in Europe — this project developed high-resolution coupled climate models that provide better predictions of climate evolution and the risk of rapid change.

Agriculture
mid-size
Target: Agri-tech planning firms

If you are an agri-tech firm dealing with shifting temperature zones and rainfall patterns — this project developed a new way to quantify past ocean changes to better predict future weather patterns across Europe.

Maritime Logistics
enterprise
Target: Global shipping operators

If you are a shipping operator dealing with changing ocean currents and heat transport — this project developed a more sustainable next-generation observing system to monitor ocean variability since 1993.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What is the cost or price for accessing these models?

Based on available project data, no pricing or cost structures are mentioned as this is a Horizon-RIA research project.

Is this technology ready for industrial scale deployment?

The project focuses on generating a new conceptual framework and improving model resolution; it is currently in the research and validation phase rather than industrial scale.

How is the IP and licensing handled for the new models?

Based on available project data, there are no specific details regarding IP or licensing agreements provided in the summary.

What is the timeline for the results?

The project period runs from 2022-07-01 to 2027-06-30.

How does this integrate with existing climate data?

It integrates multi-observational data since 1993 and paleo-proxies since 1950 using machine learning and high-resolution models.

Consortium

Who built it

The consortium is heavily research-oriented, consisting of 25 partners across 8 countries. It is dominated by 11 universities and 9 research institutions, with a low industry presence of only 2 companies (8% ratio), including one SME. This suggests the output is primarily scientific knowledge and high-end modeling rather than a commercial off-the-shelf product.

How to reach the team

University of Hamburg

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Contact us to track the 2027 final results of these high-resolution climate models.

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