EpiPose · Project

Epidemic Forecasting Models That Help Businesses Predict and Prepare for Disease Outbreaks

healthTestedTRL 5Thin data (2/5)

Imagine you're running a business and a new virus starts spreading — you need to know how bad it will get, how people will react, and what it will cost you. EpiPose built the mathematical crystal ball for exactly that: models that estimate how fast a disease spreads, how many people will get sick, and what the economic damage looks like country by country. They also tracked how people actually changed their behavior during COVID — like whether they wore masks or avoided crowds — which is gold for anyone planning responses. Think of it as a weather forecast, but for epidemics, built by 6 teams across 5 European countries who pooled their data during the worst of the pandemic.

By the numbers

consortium partners

countries covered (BE, CH, IT, NL, UK)

total project deliverables

industry partner ratio

The business problem

What needed solving

Businesses lost billions during COVID because they couldn't predict how outbreaks would unfold, how populations would change behavior, or what the economic costs of interventions would be. Insurance companies couldn't price pandemic risk, supply chain managers were blindsided by workforce disruptions, and healthcare providers couldn't forecast demand surges. Companies need reliable epidemic intelligence — not just case counts, but behavioral forecasts and economic impact models — to build resilience against future outbreaks.

The solution

What was built

The team built country-specific epidemic forecasting models covering morbidity and mortality projections, behavioral surveillance modules integrated into the Influenzanet participatory surveillance network, health economic analysis tools for evaluating intervention costs, and living systematic reviews of epidemiological data. Across 30 deliverables, the project produced open-access models, datasets, and tools for epidemic intelligence.

Audience

Who needs this

Health and life insurance companies pricing pandemic riskSupply chain risk managers at large manufacturers and retailersHealth analytics and telemedicine platform providersCorporate business continuity plannersPublic health technology vendors building outbreak monitoring tools

Business applications

Who can put this to work

Insurance & Reinsurance

enterprise

Target: Health and life insurance providers, catastrophe reinsurers

If you are an insurance company struggling to price pandemic risk into your policies — this project developed country-specific epidemiological models and health economic analyses that estimate morbidity, mortality, and intervention costs across EU countries. Their behavioral change monitoring data could sharpen your actuarial models for pandemic scenarios. The consortium produced 30 deliverables covering disease spread forecasting and economic impact assessment.

Corporate Risk & Supply Chain Management

enterprise

Target: Large manufacturers and retailers with European supply chains

If you are a supply chain manager who got blindsided by COVID lockdowns and workforce absences — this project built forecasting tools that model disease impact on populations at the country level. Their real-time behavioral monitoring modules track how people change habits during outbreaks, giving you early signals about workforce availability and consumer behavior shifts before official statistics catch up.

Healthcare & Public Health Technology

any

Target: Health analytics platforms, hospital network operators, telemedicine providers

If you are a health tech company that needs epidemic intelligence feeds for your platform — EpiPose developed participatory surveillance modules integrated with the Influenzanet network across 5 countries. Their open-source models and epidemiological parameter estimates could be embedded into your disease monitoring dashboards to provide real-time outbreak forecasting for hospital capacity planning.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What would it cost to license or use these epidemic models?

EpiPose committed to making all research data, code, tools, and results publicly available. This means the core models and datasets are likely open-access, reducing licensing costs. However, customizing these models for specific business applications (e.g., actuarial use or supply chain risk) would require integration work.

Can these models scale to cover my company's markets beyond Europe?

The models were built and validated across 5 European countries (Belgium, Netherlands, UK, Switzerland, Italy). The methodology — mathematical and statistical modelling of infectious diseases — is transferable to other regions, but country-specific epidemiological parameter estimates would need to be recalibrated with local data.

Who owns the intellectual property?

The project explicitly aimed to make all research data, code, tools, and results publicly available. As a publicly funded EU Research and Innovation Action coordinated by Universiteit Hasselt, the IP is likely held by the consortium partners under open-access terms. Contact the coordinator for specific licensing details.

How current are these models given the project ended in 2023?

The project ran from March 2020 to April 2023, covering most of the active COVID pandemic period. The underlying mathematical and statistical methodologies remain valid for future outbreaks. The behavioral surveillance modules integrated with Influenzanet partners may still be operational through that network.

Can these tools integrate with our existing health data systems?

Based on available project data, the team developed modules specifically designed for integration with participating Influenzanet partners — an existing European participatory surveillance network. This suggests the tools were built with interoperability in mind. The consortium produced 30 deliverables, indicating substantial documentation for integration.

Is there regulatory acceptance of these models?

EpiPose was designed to foster interaction between the scientific community and public health agencies. The consortium included established institutions like Universiteit Hasselt and partners across 5 EU countries, suggesting their outputs were used by public health decision-makers during the pandemic. Regulatory validation for commercial use would need separate assessment.

Consortium

Who built it

This is a purely academic consortium — 4 universities and 2 research organizations across 5 countries, with zero industry partners and zero SMEs. For a business buyer, this means the tools were built by scientists for scientists. The upside is deep methodological rigor from institutions like Universiteit Hasselt (coordinator) with expertise in mathematical modelling, participatory surveillance, and health economics. The downside is that no commercial partner stress-tested these outputs for business use. Any company adopting these tools should budget for significant adaptation and integration work, since the 30 deliverables were designed for public health agencies and the research community, not corporate end-users.

UNIVERSITEIT HASSELTCoordinator · BE
UNIVERSITEIT ANTWERPENparticipant · BE
UNIVERSITAET BERNparticipant · CH
RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEID EN MILIEUparticipant · NL
LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE ROYAL CHARTERparticipant · UK
ISTITUTO PER L'INTERSCAMBIO SCIENTIFICOparticipant · IT

How to reach the team

Universiteit Hasselt, Belgium — reach out through their epidemiology or biostatistics department

Order a report on this consortium See UNIVERSITEIT HASSELT profile →

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Want to explore how EpiPose's epidemic forecasting models could strengthen your risk assessment or business continuity planning? SciTransfer can arrange a briefing with the research team and help you evaluate commercial applicability.

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