SciTransfer
CERTAINTY · Project

High-Precision Climate and Weather Prediction Tools for Risk Management

environmentPrototypeTRL 3Thin data (2/5)

Imagine trying to predict the weather when you don't fully understand how tiny floating particles in the air change how clouds form and reflect sunlight. This work acts like a high-definition lens, using satellites and AI to clear up that blur. By figuring out exactly how these particles and clouds interact, we can better predict extreme weather and long-term climate shifts.

By the numbers
19
consortium partners
10
countries involved
5
total deliverables
The business problem

What needed solving

Current weather and climate projections are unreliable because we don't understand how aerosols and clouds interact. This uncertainty makes it difficult for businesses to plan for extreme weather events and long-term climate shifts.

The solution

What was built

The project is building improved parameterisations for ice nucleating particles and aerosol activation, integrated into high-resolution and Earth system models.

Audience

Who needs this

Climate risk analysts at insurance firmsRenewable energy forecasting companiesAgricultural planning agenciesAviation weather service providers
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Agriculture
enterprise
Target: Crop Insurance Provider

If you are a crop insurance provider dealing with unpredictable extreme weather events — this project developed improved predictive models that provide more accurate projections of climate trends. This allows for better risk pricing and mitigation strategies for farmers.

Aviation
mid-size
Target: Flight Planning Software Developer

If you are a software developer dealing with inefficient flight routing due to cloud and aerosol interference — this project developed advanced algorithms and satellite data integration that improve weather prediction. This helps in optimizing routes and reducing fuel consumption.

Energy
enterprise
Target: Renewable Energy Grid Operator

If you are a grid operator dealing with volatile solar energy output caused by cloud cover — this project developed high-resolution models of cloud microphysics. This enables more precise forecasts of solar radiation and energy production.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What is the cost or price for using these models?

Based on available project data, no pricing or cost information is provided as this is a research-funded project.

Is this technology ready for industrial scale?

The project focuses on improving the science and algorithms that feed into services like Copernicus. Based on available project data, it is currently in the research and model-improvement phase rather than a commercial scale product.

How is the IP and licensing handled?

Based on available project data, there are no specific details regarding IP or licensing agreements provided in the summary.

How does this integrate with existing weather services?

The results are designed to feed into European climate and weather services such as Copernicus and inform IPCC reports.

What is the timeline for the results?

The project period runs from 2024-01-01 to 2027-12-31.

Consortium

Who built it

The consortium is heavily academic and research-oriented, consisting of 19 partners across 10 countries. With 9 universities and 9 research organizations and only 1 SME (0% industry ratio), the project is designed for scientific discovery and model improvement rather than immediate commercial product development.

How to reach the team

Contact CNRS in France for technical inquiries regarding aerosol-cloud interactions.

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Contact us to find out how to integrate these emerging climate models into your risk management software.

More in Environment & Climate
See all Environment & Climate projects