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CENTAUR · Project

AI-Driven Climate Risk Prediction for Urban Flooding and Global Food Security

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Imagine having a high-tech early warning system that doesn't just see a storm coming, but predicts exactly which city streets will flood and where food shortages might trigger social unrest. It mixes satellite images with social media trends and weather reports to spot danger signs before they happen. It's like a weather forecast that also tells you how people and economies will react to the disaster.

By the numbers
44%
percentage of total disaster events worldwide attributed to floods in the last twenty years
14
number of consortium partners
57%
industry ratio within the consortium
The business problem

What needed solving

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, where natural disasters like floods trigger secondary crises such as food insecurity and political instability. Businesses and governments lack integrated tools to anticipate these knock-on effects before they escalate into full-scale emergencies.

The solution

What was built

Service pipelines for generating urban flood and food/water insecurity indicators, including multi-criteria analysis tools and composite risk indexes.

Audience

Who needs this

Catastrophe insurance underwritersGlobal supply chain risk managersGovernment emergency response agenciesInternational aid and security organizationsUrban infrastructure developers
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Insurance
enterprise
Target: Reinsurance and Catastrophe Modeling Firm

If you are a reinsurance firm dealing with unpredictable urban flood claims — this project developed composite risk indexes that allow for better impact assessment of flood-related threats to assets and infrastructure. This helps in pricing premiums more accurately based on anticipative response data.

Agribusiness
enterprise
Target: Global Commodity Trading House

If you are a trading company dealing with volatile crop yields in fragile regions — this project developed indicators for food and water insecurity. By monitoring these crisis indexes, you can anticipate political instability and displacements that disrupt supply chains.

Urban Planning
mid-size
Target: Municipal Infrastructure Management Company

If you are a city manager dealing with aging drainage systems and increasing storms — this project developed service pipelines for urban flood monitoring. This allows for better preparedness and protection of population and critical infrastructure.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What is the cost or pricing for using these tools?

Based on available project data, no specific pricing or cost structure is mentioned as it is an EU-funded research project.

Is the system ready for industrial scale deployment?

The project is currently implementing service pipelines and iterating through data and analytics integration, suggesting it is moving toward a scalable pilot phase.

Who owns the IP and how is licensing handled?

Based on available project data, licensing details are not provided; however, the project is coordinated by E-GEOS SPA with a consortium of 14 partners.

How does this integrate with existing data sources?

It integrates heterogeneous sources including Copernicus services, meteorological data, socio-economic data, and sensors like social media.

What is the timeline for the final results?

The project period runs from 2022-12-01 to 2026-03-31.

Consortium

Who built it

The consortium is heavily weighted toward commercial application, with a 57% industry ratio comprising 8 companies, including 4 SMEs. With 14 partners across 7 European countries, the project balances academic research (1 university, 4 research centers) with strong industrial execution led by E-GEOS SPA, indicating a high likelihood of practical, market-oriented outputs.

How to reach the team

Contact E-GEOS SPA in Italy for technical inquiries regarding Copernicus service integration.

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Contact us to find out how to integrate these climate risk indexes into your corporate risk management strategy.

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