Imagine a massive wave of elderly people all needing help at the same time in about ten years. This project figures out how that will pull their adult children—especially women—out of the workforce to provide care. It's like mapping out a future traffic jam in the labor market so cities and companies can prepare before it happens.
Companies and governments face a massive, unpredictable drop in labor supply and a spike in care demand as baby boomers age. This creates a risk for productivity and economic growth, particularly regarding female workforce participation.
The project built a social insurance model, an overlapping generations (OLG) model to predict growth, and an empirical database of stylized facts regarding education, maternity leave, and financial transfers.
If you are an insurance provider dealing with unpredictable claim volumes for the mid2030s — this project developed mathematical models that predict the size and implications of the care wave. This allows for better risk pricing and product design for the aging population.
If you are a consultancy dealing with sudden drops in female labor supply — this project developed an overlapping generations model that predicts economic growth and inclusiveness. This helps companies plan for staffing shortages as employees transition to caregiving roles.
If you are a fund manager dealing with changing saving behaviors of the baby boomer cohort — this project developed a database of stylized facts on financial transfers. This helps in predicting how capital will shift from savings to care spending.
Based on available project data, no pricing or cost information for the deliverables is provided as it is an EU-funded research project.
The project provides mathematical models and empirical databases that can be integrated into national policy or corporate planning tools, though no industrial software scale is mentioned.
Based on available project data, specific licensing terms are not listed, but the project is managed by a consortium of research institutes and universities.
The project runs from 2023-01-01 to 2026-12-31, with initial models and stylized facts delivered by December 2023.
The project specifically built a social insurance model (Deliverable 5.1) to analyze how institutional features shape formal and informal care patterns.
The consortium is heavily academic and research-oriented, consisting of 7 partners across 6 countries. With 3 universities and 4 research organizations, and only 1 SME (the coordinator), there is a 0% industry ratio. This indicates the output is primarily high-level economic intelligence and modeling rather than a commercial product.
Contact the Munich Research Institute for the Economics of Aging and SHAREanalyses GGMBH
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