Better Weather Forecasts and Volcanic Ash Alerts Using Atmospheric Monitoring Networks

Imagine the atmosphere has a "middle layer" that acts like a conductor for weather patterns — what happens up there eventually reaches us down here. ARISE2 built a Europe-wide network of sensors (using sound waves, lasers, and light measurements) to watch this middle layer in real time. Think of it as a weather radar that looks upward instead of sideways, catching things like volcanic eruptions, storms, and long-term climate shifts weeks before they hit. The data feeds directly into weather forecast models, making predictions more accurate from days out to entire seasons.

What needed solving

Airlines lose millions annually from volcanic ash cloud diversions, often based on delayed or imprecise alerts. Weather forecasts beyond 10 days remain unreliable because models lack data from the middle atmosphere, costing energy traders, agriculture planners, and insurers real money. Current monitoring networks don't observe the stratosphere and mesosphere at the resolution needed for accurate seasonal predictions or real-time extreme event detection.

What was built

A Europe-wide atmospheric monitoring network combining infrasound, lidar, and airglow sensors across 16 countries. Key concrete outputs: a prototype volcanic eruption notification system tested on Etna and Iceland, an automatic volcanic activity alert for the Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, calibrated ensemble weather forecasts shown to outperform raw forecasts, detection capability maps for extreme atmospheric events, and an upgraded data portal with advanced data products.

Who needs this

Who can put this to work

Quick answers

Who built it

This is a heavily research-oriented consortium with 13 research organizations and 9 universities making up 92% of the 24 partners across 16 countries. Only 1 industrial partner and 1 SME participated, giving a 4% industry ratio — unusually low even for infrastructure projects. The coordinator is CEA, France's major atomic and alternative energy research agency, which brings credibility but signals a science-first rather than market-first orientation. The wide geographic spread (from Iceland to Madagascar, Tunisia to Norway) is excellent for network coverage but means commercial exploitation would require significant coordination. A business looking to use these outputs would likely need to engage directly with CEA and navigate a large academic consortium.

• COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVESCoordinator · FR
• VEDURSTOFA ISLANDSparticipant · IS
• INSTITUTUL NATIONAL DE CERCETARE-DEZVOLTARE PENTRU FIZICA PAMANTULUIparticipant · RO
• UNIVERSITY OF ANTANANARIVOparticipant · MG
• THE UNIVERSITY OF READINGparticipant · UK
• UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI FIRENZEparticipant · IT
• USTAV FYZIKY ATMOSFERY AV CR, v.v.i.participant · CZ
• UNIVERSITAET BERNparticipant · CH
• BUNDESANSTALT FUER GEOWISSENSCHAFTEN UND ROHSTOFFEparticipant · DE
• NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND MAYNOOTHparticipant · IE
• DEUTSCHES ZENTRUM FUR LUFT - UND RAUMFAHRT EVparticipant · DE
• FUNDACAO GASPAR FRUTUOSOparticipant · PT
• KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMIparticipant · NL
• TEL AVIV UNIVERSITYparticipant · IL
• LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT FUR ATMOSPHARENPHYSIK EV AN DER UNIVERSITAT ROSTOCKparticipant · DE
• ASSOCIATION CENTRE SISMOLOGIQUE EURO-MEDITERRANEENparticipant · FR
• ANDOYA SPACE ASparticipant · NO
• INSTITUTET FOR RYMDFYSIKparticipant · SE
• UNIVERSITE DE LA REUNIONparticipant · FR
• STIFTELSEN NORSARparticipant · NO
• CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRSparticipant · FR
• NORGES TEKNISK-NATURVITENSKAPELIGE UNIVERSITET NTNUparticipant · NO
• UNIVERSITE DE VERSAILLES SAINT-QUENTIN EN YVELINESthirdparty · FR