SciTransfer
AGILE · Project

Systemic Risk Stress-Testing Tools for Rare but Catastrophic Events

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Imagine trying to prepare for a 'black swan' event—something that almost never happens, but if it does, it breaks everything. Instead of guessing the odds of a specific disaster, this work looks at where a system is most fragile. It's like finding the single loose bolt in a bridge that could cause the whole thing to collapse, regardless of what wind or traffic causes it.

By the numbers
15
consortium partners
10
countries involved
10
total deliverables
The business problem

What needed solving

Companies rely on probability-based risk models that fail during rare, catastrophic events. This leads to unexpected systemic collapses because they don't know where their hidden vulnerabilities lie.

The solution

What was built

A multi-sectoral risk and resilience stress-testing methodology. This includes tools for scenario building, machine learning-based anticipation, and strategic training for recovery.

Audience

Who needs this

Critical infrastructure operatorsEmergency response agenciesGovernmental disaster risk managersGlobal supply chain risk officersCybersecurity resilience consultants
Business applications

Who can put this to work

Cybersecurity
mid-size
Target: Managed Security Service Provider

If you are a security provider dealing with unpredictable cascading digital failures — this project developed stress tests that identify common points of failure. This allows you to harden systems against threats that are too rare to predict with traditional data.

Logistics
enterprise
Target: Global Supply Chain Operator

If you are a logistics firm dealing with transnational disruptions — this project developed a risk-agnostic methodology that focuses on systemic recovery. This helps you maintain critical functions even when a rare event shuts down primary routes.

Healthcare
any
Target: Regional Hospital Network

If you are a healthcare provider dealing with public health crises — this project developed capacity-building and strategic training. This ensures your organization can manage high-impact events that exceed normal emergency planning.

Frequently asked

Quick answers

What is the cost or price for implementing these tools?

Based on available project data, no pricing or cost structures are provided as this is a research and innovation action.

Can this be scaled to an industrial level?

Yes, the objective explicitly states that the methods are designed to be scalable and replicable for local, regional, and national levels.

Who owns the IP and how is licensing handled?

Based on available project data, specific IP and licensing terms are not mentioned; however, the project involves a consortium of 15 partners including industry and SMEs.

How does this integrate with existing disaster management software?

The project focuses on providing a methodological base and practical tools for risk communication and assessment to be used by decision-makers.

What is the timeline for deployment?

The project period runs from 2023-10-01 to 2027-09-30, suggesting results will be fully matured by late 2027.

Consortium

Who built it

The consortium is highly diversified across 10 countries, blending 3 industry partners and 1 SME with 4 universities and 2 research organizations. This 20% industry ratio, combined with 6 'other' entities (likely NGOs and authorities), suggests the project is heavily geared toward public-sector application and policy influence rather than immediate commercial productization.

How to reach the team

Contact JOHANNITER-UNFALL-HILFE EV in Germany

Next steps

Talk to the team behind this work.

Contact us to find the specific stress-testing tools developed by the AGILE consortium.